Scott Foster

Securities analyst covering electronics, precision equipment & robotics, engineering, construction, transport and other sectors for more than 25 years in Japan and 3 years in Korea. Permanent resident of Japan.

Independent Insight Provider, Japanese equities

Actionable bottom-up long/short Insights on equities

Equity Bottom-Up

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd. is a comprehensive heavy machinery maker. The Company manufactures machinery, ships, turbines and engines, prime movers, aircrafts, and machine parts for military and commercial use.  Mitsubishi Heavy Industries also researches and develops nuclear power plants.

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we analyzed the different share price movements of SK Telecom relative to KOSPI from 2005 to 2022 when foreign ownership remained above 99%.</li>
<li>Once MSCI announces the potential deletion of SK Telecom from MSCI Korea Index in the next several weeks, there could be some short term temporary weakness on SK Telecom.</li>
<li>Over a longer period, SK Telecom is well poised to outperform the market amid the market's rotation into value stocks and the company's strong earnings and cash flow growth.</li>
</ul>

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, New Economy, IPOs, Events

<p>Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.</p>In this Insight:<ol><li><a href='/entities/china-jinmao-holdings-group' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>China Jinmao Holdings</a></li><li><a href='/entities/guangzhou-r-f-properties-h' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Guangzhou R&F Properties</a></li><li><a href='/entities/sunac-china-holdings-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Sunac China Holdings</a></li><li><a href='/entities/greenland-hong-kong-holdings-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Greenland Hong Kong Holdings</a></li><li><a href='/entities/china-evergrande-group' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Evergrande</a></li></ol>and more...

Charles Macgregor

Head of Asia

<ul>
<li>Unsurprisingly, the independent expert (IE) considers the offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/irongate-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30897:1" rel="noopener">Irongate Group (IAP AU)</a> to be fair and reasonable. We think that IE’s valuation approach is sound.</li>
<li>The key condition is approval from shareholders and regulatory authorities (FIRB, OIO, SARB). The scheme meeting is scheduled for 29 June. </li>
<li>We continue to think that offer is attractive. At the last close price and for the 15 July implementation date, the gross and annualised spread is 1.4% and 9.2%, respectively.</li>
</ul>

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>The bleak retail performance of the previous two months reversed to a surprising extent as sales surged by 1.4%. Demand for booze dominated falling non-food store sales.</li>
<li>GDP seems only slightly less weak in Q2 as this bounce will probably prove short-lived around Easter. Falling real incomes squeezes sale volumes rather than raising values. </li>
<li>Crashing consumer confidence has now reached record lows in contrast to the business optimism that seems set for a rude awakening as customers baulk at higher prices.</li>
</ul>

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

<p><br/> The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments, top and bottom performers, rating actions, as well as a list of bond maturities in the next 30 days.<br/></p>

<ul>
<li>MHI is selling at 9.9x EPS guidance and 0.7x book value, with a dividend yield of 3.0%. We see potential upside of at least 25% beyond the New Years bounce.</li>
<li>The shares have underperformed for several years due to serious managerial errors. But the mess is being cleaned up and new growth opportunities have emerged.</li>
<li>Risks include limited margins in the energy and aerospace &amp; defense sectors and the possibility of renewed investment in the failed regional jet aircraft project.</li>
</ul>

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

<ul>
<li>Foreign investors hold 106.51m shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-telecom-co-ltd-bbccd86c-474d-4a4d-946d-10e911a225a2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:395:1" rel="noopener">SK Telecom (017670 KS)</a> versus a limit of 107.23m shares. There are only 723k more shares (1 day of ADV) available for foreign buying.</li>
<li>MSCI will delete <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-telecom-co-ltd-bbccd86c-474d-4a4d-946d-10e911a225a2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:395:1" rel="noopener">SK Telecom (017670 KS)</a> from its indices once the foreign room reaches zero, while FTSE will likely reduce the investability weight in two tranches of 5% each.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-telecom-co-ltd-bbccd86c-474d-4a4d-946d-10e911a225a2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:395:1" rel="noopener">SK Telecom (017670 KS)</a> could continue underperforming <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kt-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1112:1" rel="noopener">KT Corp (030200 KS)</a> in the short-term due to passive selling and inability of foreign investors to buy the stock.</li>
</ul>

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/Events/Delta One

<ul>
<li>Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)'s deletion seems pretty much a foregone conclusion as its average float-adjusted market cap on May 3-19 is way below the next one in line.</li>
<li>Shinhan Financial (055550 KS) is the one to replace Celltrion based on the numbers so far. There is close to a ₩1T gap with the next one, POSCO (005490 KS).</li>
<li>In this rebalancing, the flow impact of the addition/deletion is even more significant. So, their share price fluctuations on June 10 will likely be more substantial than last time.</li>
</ul>

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

<ul>
<li>The EGM of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/woodside-petroleum-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:177:1" rel="noopener">Woodside Petroleum (WPL AU)</a> today approved the BHP Petroleum merger in overwhelming fashion. 98.66% FOR. </li>
<li>They did not approve of the Climate Report the board submitted to vetting by shareholders for the first time. That got 51% "support."</li>
<li>But now that's done, people will talk about flows. So far the trade has worked but now time to think about how far to stretch it.</li>
</ul>

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>
<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/woolworths-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:500:1" rel="noopener">Woolworths Ltd (WOW AU)</a></strong> proposes to acquire all shares in <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mydeal-com-au-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30939:1" rel="noopener">MyDeal.com.au Ltd (MYD AU)</a></strong> other than those held by Sean Senvirtne and other key management personnel.</li>
<li>MyDeal shareholders will receive $1.05/share in cash, a punchy 62.8% premium to last close, but just 5% above its 2020 IPO price.</li>
<li>This proposal is being done by way of a Scheme with expected completion in Q3/Q4 2022.</li>
</ul>

David Blennerhassett

<p>For our next Corporate Webinar, we are glad to welcome <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyphens-pharma-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28034" rel="noopener">Hyphens Pharma International (HYP SP)</a> Chairman and CEO, Mr. Lim See Wah.</p>
<p>In the upcoming webinar, Mr Lim will share a short company presentation, after which he will engage in a fireside chat with Smartkarma Analyst <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/tina-banerjee/about" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tina Banerjee</a>. A live Q&amp;A session will follow.</p>
<h3>The Corporate Webinar will be hosted on Tuesday, 7 June 2022, 17:00 SGT.</h3>
<div>
<div class="content-highlight">
<h2><a href="https://share.hsforms.com/1H9pFZOB-RF2J00kbvMmxcw2c5gj?zoom_webinar_id=84194436958" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Register for the Webinar here</a></h2>
</div>
<p>Hyphens Pharma International Limited and its subsidiaries (the "Group") is Singapore’s leading specialty pharmaceutical and consumer healthcare group, leveraging on its diverse footprint in ASEAN countries. The Group has a direct presence in Singapore, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines, and is supplemented by a marketing and distribution network covering 10 other markets – Bangladesh, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong S.A.R., Macau S.A.R., Myanmar, Oman, South Korea, and Sri Lanka.</p>
<p>Singapore is the Group’s regional headquarters, where its strategic planning, finance, regulatory affairs, research and development, legal, business development, and logistics operations are based. The Group’s core business comprises the following segments: Specialty Pharma Principals, Proprietary Brands, and Medical Hypermart &amp; Digital. Besides marketing and selling a range of specialty pharmaceutical products in selected ASEAN countries through exclusive distributorship or licensing and supply agreements with brand principals mainly from Europe and the United States, the Group also develops, markets, and sells its own proprietary range of dermatological products and health supplement products. In addition, the Group operates a medical hypermart for healthcare professionals, healthcare institutions and retail pharmacies, to supply pharmaceutical products and medical supplies and an online e-pharmacy for doctors to prescribe and have medications delivered to their patients’ homes.</p>
</div>
<p>Corporate Webinars by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/home/corporate-solutions/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Smartkarma Corporate Solutions</a> feature discussions with IROs and Executives, discussing their companies, the challenges they face, and the opportunities in their sectors and markets.</p>

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries

MHI (7011 JP): Opportunity or Value Trap?