Research from Superfluous Value, Superfluous Value

Superfluous Value

Stock selection has rarely been as important as it is today. After a roaring decade for US markets and with signs of mania everywhere, the S&P 500 as over-priced as it has ever been.

But, there is better way. Superfluous Value is a contrarian, deep-dive into the markets forgotten by the 60/40 instos and indexing, momentum chasers. Where the hot money has long moved on, it leaves behind investments offering great safety and prospective returns.

I believe the 2020s will look diametrically opposite to the recent past, with Emerging Markets, the UK, Japan and commodities set to rip and I intend to be holding the best opportunities available as they do.

Please feel free to come along on the journey.

Research from Superfluous Value

Contrarian Deep-Dive into the Markets

Equity Bottom-Up

Petrobras Distribuidora SA / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>I had to write a brief note about the panic whipped up by UBS’ downgrade of Petrobras, cutting its price target from R$47 to R$22 on fears of a policy shift under the incoming Lula administration.</li><li>This combined with quarterly ex-dividend day, to send the shares sharply lower and extend their slide since the election.</li><li>This Reuters article sums up recent events nicely- namely Lula is over-hauling PBR management and seeking a strategic shift from monster dividend pay-outs, towards increased investment in renewables and possible domestic price caps.</li></ul>

I had to write a brief note about the panic whipped up by UBS’ downgrade of Petrobras, cutting its price target from R$47 to R$22 on fears of a policy shift under the incoming Lula administration.This combined with quarterly ex-dividend day, to send the shares sharply lower and extend their slide since the election.This Reuters article sums up recent events nicely- namely Lula is over-hauling PBR management and seeking a strategic shift from monster dividend pay-outs, towards increased investment in renewables and possible domestic price caps.

Petrobras: Pricing Amargeddon, With a Muddle Through Likely