The betting odds on a Trump victory in November have risen substantially, but the markets haven’t fully discounted such an outcome.
Investors who want to position for Trump 2.0 should seek long inflation exposure (long gold/short bonds) and short globalization (long domestic producers/short transportation and logistics).
Notwithstanding the growth outlook, equity returns may be more challenging as Trump 2.0 will see the S&P 500 at more lofty multiples than the P/E ratio of Trump 1.0.
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