Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Macroeconomics

Fed Chair Powell’s forthcoming Congressional Testimony on monetary policy later this month assumes greater importance compared to recent years due to the recent dovish tilt in policy posture following communication errors in 2018.
Financial market volatility may have adversely affected animal spirits in the real economy, an outcome which the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) seeks to avoid, but members will still be open to accusations that they capitulated to pressure from financial markets.
Accepted proxies for corporate animal spirits in the real economy indicate moderation over the past 12 months even before Q4’s market turbulence, but current levels are still far from disastrous and hitherto do not suggest a total cessation in risk- taking activity.
Supply-side responses in the labour market over the 12-months, notably a rise in the participation rate for prime aged workers, have reduced the downward pressure on the unemployment rate, thereby enabling the Fed to embrace its patient policy approach.
The FOMC will retain their dovish tilt towards policy conduct until March, but, thereafter, the tone of incoming economic data, notably inflation, will ultimately determine the direction of the next change in the federal funds rate and its timing.

Fed Chair Powell’s forthcoming Congressional Testimony on monetary policy later this month assumes greater importance compared to recent years due to the recent dovish tilt in policy posture following communication errors in 2018.
Financial market volatility may have adversely affected animal spirits in the real economy, an outcome which the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) seeks to avoid, but members will still be open to accusations that they capitulated to pressure from financial markets.
Accepted proxies for corporate animal spirits in the real economy indicate moderation over the past 12 months even before Q4’s market turbulence, but current levels are still far from disastrous and hitherto do not suggest a total cessation in risk- taking activity.
Supply-side responses in the labour market over the 12-months, notably a rise in the participation rate for prime aged workers, have reduced the downward pressure on the unemployment rate, thereby enabling the Fed to embrace its patient policy approach.
The FOMC will retain their dovish tilt towards policy conduct until March, but, thereafter, the tone of incoming economic data, notably inflation, will ultimately determine the direction of the next change in the federal funds rate and its timing.

Preserving Animal Spirits Becomes the Endgame for Fed Policy