Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower, AIR Control Tower

Neil Glynn

Neil Glynn, FCA, CFA, is Founder and Managing Director of AIR Control Tower.

Neil has near to 20 years of aviation experience, based in Dublin and London, including the roles of Credit Officer at CIT Aerospace and head of global transport equity research at Credit Suisse. 

The quality of Neil’s industry-leading research and forecasting across the value chain is long-recognized by investors (long track record of top tier placing in Institutional investor European Transport analyst survey; ranked #3 in last survey in 2021) and corporates (regular management team/board workshops, conference presentations around the world). 

Neil has also led 10 initial public offering (IPO) processes, assessing the investment case of corporates seeking to attract new investors.

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower

Singapore Airlines – Onset of Earnings Normalization to Heighten Focus on Efficiency

APAC Airline Sector – Cost Inflation Management Differentials Crucial as Cargo Yields Normalise

AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower is an independent research and analysis platform. Its mission is to provide impactful insight and analysis across the global airline industry at a company and market level via detailed financial models to aid decision making for key stake holders at a time when risks have seldom, if ever, been higher and the global sector grapples with the imperative of funding de-carbonisation. Unique analysis forecasting global carrier-level earnings/cash flows, and restructuring/de-leveraging prospects, is designed to dynamically assess the health of the industry, predict surprises and identify potential requirements for third party support.

Insights on the global airline industry

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>With 1H24 results, Qantas followed Singapore Airlines in highlighting fare weakness in international markets and we cut our pre-tax income by 13% to FY24.</li>
<li>We expect FY24 pre-tax income to fall 16% yoy but also expect FY25 to fall another 5%, as our EBITDAR/ASK remains 10% above FY19 levels following 12% in 2H24.</li>
<li>While international markets continue to normalise, Qantas's domestic market structure positions it favourably to continue to invest in customer service and product.</li>
</ul>


With 1H24 results, Qantas followed Singapore Airlines in highlighting fare weakness in international markets and we cut our pre-tax income by 13% to FY24.
We expect FY24 pre-tax income to fall 16% yoy but also expect FY25 to fall another 5%, as our EBITDAR/ASK remains 10% above FY19 levels following 12% in 2H24.
While international markets continue to normalise, Qantas's domestic market structure positions it favourably to continue to invest in customer service and product.


Qantas – Two-Year Earnings Re-Set in Prospect

Qantas Airways

Qantas – Two-Year Earnings Re-Set in Prospect