SIGA Technologies — A solid quarter for topline growth

Q225 was a strong quarter for SIGA, supported by material topline traction, with deliveries of $79m of oral and IV TPOXX to the US strategic national stockpile (SNS), fully servicing the order book at the end of FY24. The company confirmed that $26m in exercised IV TPOXX options will be delivered in 2026, in line with our estimates. A key highlight for the period was the additional $27m of BARDA funding announced under the 19C contract (related to manufacturing and pediatric development), which we believe is further evidence of a sustained US government focus on bioterrorism preparedness and supports upcoming RFP discussions on TPOXX stockpiling (we model a new contract, effective FY26). We update our estimates to reflect the improved net cash position ($182.5m) offset by a more cautious stance on near-term sales in Europe, given the CHMP queries on mpox trial data. Our valuation is unchanged at $14.78/share.