Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Ending quantitative tightening will not eradicate pressure on bank reserves due to Treasury borrowing. Liquidity will be boosted in 2026 by depletion of the Treasury's General Account at the Fed.</li>
<li>The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) enacted retroactive tax breaks to 1 January 2025 without changes to withholding tax schedules, thereby ensuring large refunds in 2026 H1.</li>
<li>The economic impact of the OBBBA's tax breaks will be smaller compared to COVID-19 pandemic-related cheques because they favour households with higher propensities to save. Data-dependent Fed policy will continue.</li>
</ul>


Ending quantitative tightening will not eradicate pressure on bank reserves due to Treasury borrowing. Liquidity will be boosted in 2026 by depletion of the Treasury's General Account at the Fed.
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) enacted retroactive tax breaks to 1 January 2025 without changes to withholding tax schedules, thereby ensuring large refunds in 2026 H1.
The economic impact of the OBBBA's tax breaks will be smaller compared to COVID-19 pandemic-related cheques because they favour households with higher propensities to save. Data-dependent Fed policy will continue.


Tax Refunds to Support Consumers in 2026 H1, Raising Inflation and Fed Policy Concerns