Independent Economist, Forecaster and Strategist

Thomas Lam

Tom has over two decades of experience in the realm of economics and finance, with expertise ranging from covering the global economy, deciphering financial markets, including macro forecasting, to advising on investment strategy.

He commenced his career in New York, initially at a large money-center bank and then at a hedge fund.  Thereafter, while in Singapore, he worked at two financial institutions and later joined academia.  

Tom has been consistently ranked among the top five most accurate economists in the world on forecasting the US economy overall (placed third, last published by the “Bloomberg Rankings of Top Forecasters”).  During the Global Financial Crisis, he was also acknowledged as the second-best US forecaster worldwide.  

Moreover, he was exclusively identified by Bloomberg to have accurately predicted the onset of the 2009 US recovery 16 months ahead of the official announcement.  Consequently, he has been widely publicized as one of “Wall Street’s Most Prophetic Economists”.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The higher than expected headline and core CPI data in January raised concerns regarding the inflation backdrop </li>
<li>But my analysis suggests that the upside CPI surprises were mainly driven by the least persistent categories of inflation</li>
<li>For now, the more persistent categories of CPI inflation imply that the improvements in trend inflation are likely to stall    </li>
</ul>


The higher than expected headline and core CPI data in January raised concerns regarding the inflation backdrop 
But my analysis suggests that the upside CPI surprises were mainly driven by the least persistent categories of inflation
For now, the more persistent categories of CPI inflation imply that the improvements in trend inflation are likely to stall    


The Hubbub Surrounding January CPI Inflation