Macroeconomic and Investing, The Macro Compass

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Former head of a $20 bn Investment Portfolio and passionate global macro investor. I write The Macro Compass, a financial newsletter providing actionable investment ideas & unique macroeconomic insights to enhance the risk/return of your portfolio

Macroeconomic and Investing

The Macro Compass

Actionable investment ideas and unique global macro insights. From the desk of a former Head of $20 bn Investment Portfolio straight to your inbox.

Actionable Investment Ideas

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Long-term, structural economic growth is mostly driven by two factors: demographics and productivity.</li>
<li>Both peaked in the late 80s, and we chose to fix the problem with a ton of debt.<br>It worked until now, but we are at very late stages of the long-term debt cycle.</li>
<li>Healthy demographics and high fertility rates facilitate a growing labor force: retirees are more than offset by new young workers, and hence the share of working-age population as % of total increases.</li>
</ul>


Long-term, structural economic growth is mostly driven by two factors: demographics and productivity.
Both peaked in the late 80s, and we chose to fix the problem with a ton of debt. It worked until now, but we are at very late stages of the long-term debt cycle.
Healthy demographics and high fertility rates facilitate a growing labor force: retirees are more than offset by new young workers, and hence the share of working-age population as % of total increases.


The Long Term Debt Cycle