bullish
The Long Term Debt Cycle
SUMMARY
- Long-term, structural economic growth is mostly driven by two factors: demographics and productivity.
- Both peaked in the late 80s, and we chose to fix the problem with a ton of debt.
It worked until now, but we are at very late stages of the long-term debt cycle. - Healthy demographics and high fertility rates facilitate a growing labor force: retirees are more than offset by new young workers, and hence the share of working-age population as % of total increases.
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