Materials| Industrials |Commodities

Rahul Jain

Over 20 years of sell-side research experience across Indian and global Metals & Mining, Cement, Industrials, and Commodities. Focused on fundamentals-driven analysis including earnings modeling, cost structures, and valuations using DCF and relative multiples. Global commodity cycles, supply-demand trends, and macro factors are integrated into sector calls. Research prioritizes inflection points from price, cost, and policy shifts, using a disciplined bottom-up approach supported by top-down macro screening.

Global Metals & Mining Playbook – July 2025

Rio Tinto Doubles Down on Lithium: A Late Entrant with Long-Term Intent

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>After a blockbuster 2022 driven by lithium supercycle highs, Tianqi Lithium saw earnings swing into deep losses in 2024 amid price crashes.</li>
<li>Looking ahead, it plans to scale lithium chemical capacity to over 140,000 tons/year, deepen integration in China and Southeast Asia, and selectively invest in technologies like DLE.</li>
<li>While near-term profitability remains uncertain, current EV/EBITDA valuations below 5x suggest the downside may be priced in.</li>
</ul>


After a blockbuster 2022 driven by lithium supercycle highs, Tianqi Lithium saw earnings swing into deep losses in 2024 amid price crashes.
Looking ahead, it plans to scale lithium chemical capacity to over 140,000 tons/year, deepen integration in China and Southeast Asia, and selectively invest in technologies like DLE.
While near-term profitability remains uncertain, current EV/EBITDA valuations below 5x suggest the downside may be priced in.


Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM US)

Tianqi Lithium (002466.SZ / 9696.HK): Rebuilding Via Expansion, Valuations Appear Reasonable