Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Being invited, I joined Sellside, i.e. JPMorgan, Nomura and Macquarie, totally around 9-10 years. Before that, I joined International Data Corp (https://www.idc.com/) to be the Asia Semiconductor analyst for nearly 2 years, and being invited to do personal lectures in TSMC, UMC, Samsung and etc. In my working experiences, I also had the chance to join Taiwanese panel company, AUO (2409.TT) and the buyside, Chinalife (2823.TT), totally for over 1 year.
I obtained MS degree from the Tsing-Hua University. Then I worked in the Taiwan Semiconductor companies for around 11 years. I had several US patents during my stay in the Semiconductor industry.

Being worked in the sellside and buyside, I deeply dived in the Greater China Semiconductor industry and directly covered some companies, like TSMC (2330.TT, TSM.US), UMC (2303.TT, UMC.US), Vanguard (5347.TT), ASE (3711.TT, ASX.US), SPIL (merged with ASE and delisted), KYEC ( 2449.TT), JCET (600584.CH), ASMPT (522.HK), GWC (6488.TT), WinSemi (3105.TT), Mediatek (2454.TT), Silergy (6415.TT), Novatek (3034.TT), Guoxin Micro (002049.CH) etc.

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Foundry Market Forecast in 2030F; TSMC Had Developed The 2nm Nanosheet.

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Sales Should Be Gradually Increasing QoQ in 2024F; IPhone 16 Is on Schedule.

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Raising Growth Target to 25%+ YoY in 2024F.

MediaTek (2454.TT): 2024F Indicating a Complete Recovery from the Previous Downturn Situation.

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): The 1Q24F Revenue Outlook and the Progress for Intel, MediaTek and Samsung.

A Bull Investment Case for TSMC (Summary Version)

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Usually, February is typically the month with the fewest working days of the year, and therefore, revenue is likely to be at its lowest as well.</li>
<li>We consider that the Taiwanese government may desire TSMC to build fabs in countries aligned with those who signed the "Wassenaar Arrangement." </li>
<li>The price hike of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> by US$785.38 on February 22 in the US market could signal an important development in the AI sector.</li>
</ul>


Usually, February is typically the month with the fewest working days of the year, and therefore, revenue is likely to be at its lowest as well.
We consider that the Taiwanese government may desire TSMC to build fabs in countries aligned with those who signed the "Wassenaar Arrangement." 
The price hike of NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) by US$785.38 on February 22 in the US market could signal an important development in the AI sector.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): The Implications of Feb Sales, TSMC 2nd Japanese Fab and NVDA Stock Price.