bearish
UK: Unemployment Turn Confirmed
384 Views13 Dec 2022 20:00
SUMMARY
- The UK unemployment rate rose again to 3.67% in Oct-22. The 3-month change in the single-month rate slowed to 0.2pp, so it remains consistent with 3.8% at yearend.
- Falling vacancies and rising redundancies confirm the turn in labour demand, which failed to absorb the recent increase in supply despite still being historically high.
- Government policy has encouraged bumper pay demands and second-round effects. The BoE should be worried by signs 5% is becoming the new 2% in pay awards for 2023.
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