Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

US: Politics Is Clouding the Ability to Make Rational Monetary Policy

US: Subdued Inflation to Oblige a Reluctant Fed to Cut This Month, but No More in '25

US: Tariff Deals with Japan, EU, Indonesia, Philippines Sharply Reduce Stagflation Risk

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Historically, US sovereign rating changes have had no impact on fiscal policy conduct. Moody's failed to downgrade the US sovereign credit rating when conduct was profligate during the Biden administration.</li>
<li>The long end segment of the US Treasury yield curve has suffered the bulk of the fallout from the sovereign debt downgrade, although inflationary expectations in this segment remain well-anchored.</li>
<li>The correlation between equities and Treasury yields has turned negative, implying headwinds for equities if yields rise. Valuations no longer favour equities against Treasuries for the first time since 2002. </li>
</ul>


Historically, US sovereign rating changes have had no impact on fiscal policy conduct. Moody's failed to downgrade the US sovereign credit rating when conduct was profligate during the Biden administration.
The long end segment of the US Treasury yield curve has suffered the bulk of the fallout from the sovereign debt downgrade, although inflationary expectations in this segment remain well-anchored.
The correlation between equities and Treasury yields has turned negative, implying headwinds for equities if yields rise. Valuations no longer favour equities against Treasuries for the first time since 2002. 


US Debt Downgrade: No Impact on Fiscal Policy Conduct as US Equity-Treasury Valuations Turn Neutral