Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Macroeconomics

Increased commentary about the timing of the next US recession has centred on the prospective arrival of an inverted yield curve, although Q2 growth was extremely robust.
US recessions have changed with the passage of time, away from manufacturing, thereby complicating the task of forecasting contractions.
Trusted US leading indicators of economic activity are currently not simultaneously flashing slowdown signals.
Despite the widely-publicised worries surrounding yield curve inversion, financial market leading indicators of recession are still not indicating imminent trouble.
Corporate profits are a leading indicator of economic activity, and their continued uptrend argues against recession, while commercial and industrial loans should be followed to detect any emerging squeeze on profits at the small company level.
The Fed will play a crucial role in the timing of the next US recession, particularly if it is prevented from responding to slowing economic growth due to rising inflationary expectations.

Increased commentary about the timing of the next US recession has centred on the prospective arrival of an inverted yield curve, although Q2 growth was extremely robust.
US recessions have changed with the passage of time, away from manufacturing, thereby complicating the task of forecasting contractions.
Trusted US leading indicators of economic activity are currently not simultaneously flashing slowdown signals.
Despite the widely-publicised worries surrounding yield curve inversion, financial market leading indicators of recession are still not indicating imminent trouble.
Corporate profits are a leading indicator of economic activity, and their continued uptrend argues against recession, while commercial and industrial loans should be followed to detect any emerging squeeze on profits at the small company level.
The Fed will play a crucial role in the timing of the next US recession, particularly if it is prevented from responding to slowing economic growth due to rising inflationary expectations. 

US Economic and Financial Leading Indicators Favour Continued Growth