Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Macroeconomics

Despite low unemployment, the rise of the gig economy may have suppressed the average hourly earnings metric of wage inflation due to the increased incidence of irregular work schedules.Fed Chair Powell surprised financial markets after last week's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting by citing transient factors for keeping inflation below its 2% target, thereby creating scope for a hawkish policy tilt at some future point.Investors have become complacent about their Fed policy outlook, because the FOMC does not appear inclined to tolerate an inflation overshoot with unemployment below its natural rate.Rising productivity growth may provoke an upward revision of the economy's speed- limit by the FOMC, but this will put upward pressure on the yield curve over the longer-term.US equities have outperformed their peers during 2019 for various reasons, but further dollar appreciation could produce tightening financial conditions that would work to their detriment.

Despite low unemployment, the rise of the gig economy may have suppressed the average hourly earnings metric of wage inflation due to the increased incidence of irregular work schedules.Fed Chair Powell surprised financial markets after last week's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting by citing transient factors for keeping inflation below its 2% target, thereby creating scope for a hawkish policy tilt at some future point.Investors have become complacent about their Fed policy outlook, because the FOMC does not appear inclined to tolerate an inflation overshoot with unemployment below its natural rate.Rising productivity growth may provoke an upward revision of the economy's speed- limit by the FOMC, but this will put upward pressure on the yield curve over the longer-term.US equities have outperformed their peers during 2019 for various reasons, but further dollar appreciation could produce tightening financial conditions that would work to their detriment.

US Equities and Fed Policy: Time to Reduce Complacency