New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

Forsyth Barr

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The Commerce Commission’s (ComCom) draft gas price reset for Vector (VCT) is a little lower than expected, but there is scope for a better outcome at the final decision in May 2026.</li><li>Share price weakness over the past two months, ostensibly due to rising interest rates, ignores the fact that VCT’s earnings are strongly correlated to interest rates—it is the main reason for strong earnings growth expectations to the end of the decade.</li><li>We like VCT’s near-term outlook, and while there is uncertainty around the long-term prospects for its gas business, VCT will benefit from gas conversion to electricity, and gas is the smallest part of its business.</li></ul>

The Commerce Commission’s (ComCom) draft gas price reset for Vector (VCT) is a little lower than expected, but there is scope for a better outcome at the final decision in May 2026.Share price weakness over the past two months, ostensibly due to rising interest rates, ignores the fact that VCT’s earnings are strongly correlated to interest rates—it is the main reason for strong earnings growth expectations to the end of the decade.We like VCT’s near-term outlook, and while there is uncertainty around the long-term prospects for its gas business, VCT will benefit from gas conversion to electricity, and gas is the smallest part of its business.

Vector Gas Reset Neutral, VCT Outlook Positive—Upgrade to OUTPERFORM

Vector Ltd

Vector Gas Reset Neutral, VCT Outlook Positive—Upgrade to OUTPERFORM