Wheaton Precious Metals — Hunting Actaeon

Wheaton Precious Metals’ (WPM’s) Q325 financial results are scheduled for release on 6 November. Ahead of the announcement however, we already have production numbers from Salobo, Sudbury, Voisey’s Bay, San Dimas, Zinkgruvan, Neves-Corvo, Blackwater and Penasquito. We have updated our forecasts to reflect this data. After two quarters in which sales have outperformed production and inventory has been drawn down, we suspect that this trend will now reverse in Q3 before balance is restored in Q4. While we forecast that production will be modestly higher in Q3 therefore, we forecast that gold equivalent sales will be 14.1% lower. Consequently, we have reduced our Q3 EPS forecast by 5.7c/share. However, we have increased our FY25 EPS forecast by 8.9c/share to reflect recent moves in precious metals prices. Note that our FY26 adjusted EPS estimate (below) is based on very conservative gold and silver prices of US$2,105/oz and US$24.33/oz, respectively. At prevailing metals prices, it rises by 142.2% from the US$1.54/share shown to US$3.73/share (see Exhibit 17).