Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The Euro’s trend weakness reflects rate differentials that are already stretched, with ECB cut pricing at the extremes erroneously priced for the Fed two months ago.</li><li>Labour market data matter, and not just to the Fed. Unemployment trends are even more hawkish in the Euro area, and the ECB should clarify the policy relevance of this.</li><li>Seasonality also supports a fading of the fundamental consensus story. EURUSD hasn’t fallen into yearend since 2016, and crowded positioning could compound the reversal.</li></ul><p></p>

The Euro’s trend weakness reflects rate differentials that are already stretched, with ECB cut pricing at the extremes erroneously priced for the Fed two months ago.Labour market data matter, and not just to the Fed. Unemployment trends are even more hawkish in the Euro area, and the ECB should clarify the policy relevance of this.Seasonality also supports a fading of the fundamental consensus story. EURUSD hasn’t fallen into yearend since 2016, and crowded positioning could compound the reversal.

Wrestling Euro Bears Before Christmas