Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

An equity research analyst with over 7 years of experience in multiple sectors. Previously worked for one of the world's largest asset managers with about USD2.5trn in AUM, covering small and micro-cap companies in the consumer sphere across Europe and developed Asia. Also experienced in covering multiple industries including banking, insurance and asset management, retail, tech, telco and REIT.

Equity Analyst

Asahi Group Holdings Placement: Attractive For Newcomers & Irritating For Old-Timers

🇯🇵 Japan • Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP) - A Return & Valuation Perspective

Long Kirin/​Short Asahi While Tokyo Olympics Hangs In Doubt

Asahi to Close The Acquisition of CUB on 1st of June

Asahi to Acquire AB InBev's Carlton & United Breweries: Positive for Asahi Not so for AB InBev

Asahi Group: Alcohol Tax Reforms to Challenge Asahi’s No. 1 Position in The Japanese Beer Market

TrueData POS: Japan’s Beer Market Trends During Early Days of the 2019 Rugby World Cup

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

Asahi Group Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

The Japanese beer company, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asahi-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10482:1" rel="noopener">Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP)</a>, which holds the largest market share in the Japanese market and sells Japan’s No. 1 beer, “Asahi Super Dry”, acquired Carlton &amp; United Breweries (CUB) in June 2020 for a valuation of A$16 billion, (¥1,141.6 billion) which is the largest outbound purchase by a Japanese beer maker to date.
The acquisition was financed through a short-term loan of ¥1.185 trillion from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-mitsui-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:217:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)</a> and the loan is to be repaid on 19th May 2021, which gives Asahi until second quarter of 2021 to pursue the proposed equity and long-term debt issue to refinance this short-term loan.
However, the current capital market conditions are unfavourable for Asahi to pursue a secondary equity offering as the share price has declined 30% from the pre COVID-19 level. Although Asahi currently has a weak financial position relative to its history, we still feel it is not enough to force an equity offering at a discount to its pre-COVID-19 price.

The Japanese beer company, Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP), which holds the largest market share in the Japanese market and sells Japan’s No. 1 beer, “Asahi Super Dry”, acquired Carlton &amp; United Breweries (CUB) in June 2020 for a valuation of A$16 billion, (¥1,141.6 billion) which is the largest outbound purchase by a Japanese beer maker to date.
The acquisition was financed through a short-term loan of ¥1.185 trillion from Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP) and the loan is to be repaid on 19th May 2021, which gives Asahi until second quarter of 2021 to pursue the proposed equity and long-term debt issue to refinance this short-term loan.
However, the current capital market conditions are unfavourable for Asahi to pursue a secondary equity offering as the share price has declined 30% from the pre COVID-19 level. Although Asahi currently has a weak financial position relative to its history, we still feel it is not enough to force an equity offering at a discount to its pre-COVID-19 price.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)

アサヒグループホールディングスの上場：株価が回復するまでは可能性は低い