Australian Telcos: Competitive Landscape May Change Dramatically if VHA/TPG Merge.

TPG and Vodafone-Hutchison Merger of Equals Proposed - This One Goes To 11

More Than Friends as TPG Telecom and Vodafone Answer Each Other's Calls

Telstra Making Progress on Value Creation

Telstra's Road to Recovery Paved With Cost-Cut Opportunities

Telstra's 1H18 Result Was Relatively Steady in the Face of Rapid NBN Migration. Remain at Neutral

The Meaning of a Dataful Life for Telstra

Differentiated global TMT & Internet Research

New Street Research Insights

New Street Research

Research is provided by our team of experienced analysts. Our work is idea driven, based on independence of thought, sector expertise, and firmly focused on fundamentals and valuation of telecoms and internet names globally. New Street is headquartered in London with offices in New York, Singapore and Australia. 

New Street Research is an independent, partner-owned, research firm specialising in equity and debt research. Our equity research embraces the following sectors:

Pan European Telecom Services and Cable
US Telecoms, Cable, Satellite and Towers
Global Emerging Market Telecoms
Japan Telecoms
Asian Internet
Pan European Healthcare
US Healthcare
Japanese Healthcare

We also provide debt research on:
Pan European Telecom Services and Cable

Equity Bottom-Up

New Street Research believes that Australian wireless market and the operations of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/690" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:690:1">Telstra Corp Ltd (TLS AU)</a>, Optus and Vodafone Hutch Australia (VHA) remain broadly unchanged. Capex will remain high from FY17 through FY19 and should decline beyond that. We expect FCF and RoIC to rebuild steadily across all 3 operators (MNOs) from FY20. In share price terms Telstra is experiencing the downside of heavy network investment, both its own capital spend and Optus’s and VHA’s success in winning subscribers with price and allowances driving down ARPU. The upside to its investment is still 2-3 years away and may vary significantly depending on the extent of new business on mobile networks and counter-measures to keep traffic on the NBN. Capital constrained <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/323" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:323:1">TPG's (TPM AU)</a> impact as a new operator is likely to be limited by its limited network footprint in that period.
Telstra recently held an analyst day and announced a new 4 pillars strategy (Australians love 4 pillar strategies -see banks), which included sharp staff cuts and preparations for a post NBN world. While earnings remain under pressure and the new guidance is a downgrade, the bad news is now largely priced in. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1935" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1935">Ian Martin</a> has upgraded his view on Telstra following the steep share price decline to BUY and keeps the target price at $4.00.
Australian MNO mobile revenue and EBITDA outlook 
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/056/005/original/aust%20MNO%20revenue.jpg?1529999210" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="56005"></figure>

New Street Research believes that Australian wireless market and the operations of Telstra Corp Ltd (TLS AU), Optus and Vodafone Hutch Australia (VHA) remain broadly unchanged. Capex will remain high from FY17 through FY19 and should decline beyond that. We expect FCF and RoIC to rebuild steadily across all 3 operators (MNOs) from FY20. In share price terms Telstra is experiencing the downside of heavy network investment, both its own capital spend and Optus’s and VHA’s success in winning subscribers with price and allowances driving down ARPU. The upside to its investment is still 2-3 years away and may vary significantly depending on the extent of new business on mobile networks and counter-measures to keep traffic on the NBN. Capital constrained TPG's (TPM AU) impact as a new operator is likely to be limited by its limited network footprint in that period.
Telstra recently held an analyst day and announced a new 4 pillars strategy (Australians love 4 pillar strategies -see banks), which included sharp staff cuts and preparations for a post NBN world. While earnings remain under pressure and the new guidance is a downgrade, the bad news is now largely priced in. Ian Martin has upgraded his view on Telstra following the steep share price decline to BUY and keeps the target price at $4.00.
Australian MNO mobile revenue and EBITDA outlook 


Singtel (Singapore Telecommunications) (ST SP)

オーストラリアのモバイル市場。価格急落を受け、テルストラを「買い」に格上げ