Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Mr. Bhaskaran is a leading Asian economist based in Singapore with more than 30 years of experience in studying economic, political and security issues that shape the business environment in Asia. He co-ordinates the Asian business of Washington DC-based strategic advisory firm, Centennial Group, directing its Asian economic research practice which provides in-depth analysis of macro trends in Asia. He works extensively with investment institutions, government agencies and corporations. Mr. Bhaskaran regularly presents his views on the economic, political and business environment in Asia at business conferences and in-house briefings. He has conducted studies on a wide range of subjects including: consumer finance in Asia; Asian integration; regional and country-specific political and economic outlooks; the Impact of China on Asia; portfolio capital flows in emerging markets, amongst many others. He is as a member of the Regional Advisory Group for Asia and the Pacific of the International Monetary Fund. Mr. Bhaskaran is a regular columnist for The Edge (Singapore) and holds positions in think tanks including being Adjunct Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS); Vice President of the Economics Society of Singapore, and Council Member of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA). Mr. Bhaskaran serves on the boards of CIMB Investment Bank and Japfa Limited.

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<p><strong>Near term risks higher than expected</strong></p><ul><li>The long-term drivers of transformation are well in place in China - its investment in human capital is paying off in the form of innovation and high-value entrepreneurship.</li><li>But the near term trends are more worrying than we had assumed. Recent data on employment creation, non-performing loans and corporates&rsquo; willingness to invest point to further slowing in economic growth.</li><li>Policy support is still likely to prevent a serious slowdown but policy is facing some challenges as well. In particular, the anti-corruption campaign has created so much fear in bureaucrats that approvals for projects are slow, stalling some of the fiscal stimulus.</li></ul>

Near term risks higher than expectedThe long-term drivers of transformation are well in place in China - its investment in human capital is paying off in the form of innovation and high-value entrepreneurship.But the near term trends are more worrying than we had assumed. Recent data on employment creation, non-performing loans and corporates&rsquo; willingness to invest point to further slowing in economic growth.Policy support is still likely to prevent a serious slowdown but policy is facing some challenges as well. In particular, the anti-corruption campaign has created so much fear in bureaucrats that approvals for projects are slow, stalling some of the fiscal stimulus.

中国：経済減速への政策対応の課題