China's Serial Rate Cuts: What are Them and are They Effective in Reviving the Falling Economy

Outlook Overview: How Far Are the Rate Cuts?

China Banks; Challenged on Credit Quality Trends, with Selective Opportunities to Be Found

Founder & Head of Research, Fortress Hill Advisors

Alex Ng

Founder & Head of Research

Fortress Hill Advisors

Founded in Hong Kong in 2019, Fortress Hill Advisor seeks to provide premium economic and financial researches.

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Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Growth is benefitting from momentum in public investment/exports and high tech production. However, domestic demand is slower and this is a drag on H2 2024 and 2025 growth prospects. </li>
<li>Aside from the negative drag from the residential construction crisis, consumption is softer.  There is uncertainty about employment and wage growth, adverse wealth effects, and less pent-up demand post COVID.</li>
<li>We forecast 4.6% 2024 GDP growth and 4.0% 2025, though we have cut the 2025 inflation forecast from +0.9% to +0.6%.  The excess of production over domestic demand causes disinflation.</li>
</ul>


Growth is benefitting from momentum in public investment/exports and high tech production. However, domestic demand is slower and this is a drag on H2 2024 and 2025 growth prospects. 
Aside from the negative drag from the residential construction crisis, consumption is softer.  There is uncertainty about employment and wage growth, adverse wealth effects, and less pent-up demand post COVID.
We forecast 4.6% 2024 GDP growth and 4.0% 2025, though we have cut the 2025 inflation forecast from +0.9% to +0.6%.  The excess of production over domestic demand causes disinflation.


中国の見通し：不均衡と成長の減速