Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Over 15 years analysing Japanese and Asian stocks from a long/short perspective

I focus on cyclically driven sectors such as Gaming, Factory Automation and Autos

An eclectic background as a long-short analyst, upper management at a financial data startup through its listing, and as the founder of a team analysing big/alternative data, all of which supports independent and differentiated views... we hope

An appreciation for Mathematics drives the development of a "Micro-Quantamental" process which can provide a data-driven, historically-informed and semi-automated foundation upon which to layer more qualitative and judgemental analysis, thus improving investment decision-making speed and accuracy

Japan/Asia Long-Short

GMO-PG – When Does Hiding Out in a 112x PE Stock Become a Good Idea?

GMO Payment Gateway – Cheaper Than It’s Been in a While and It’s Accelerating

Green World FinTech Service: Green Light On

GMO Payment Gateway: Overseas, ST Lending and B2B Lay the Groundwork for Growth Far Into Future

Zozo: Yahoo Japan Tenders, Maezawa Is Out, Will GMO PG Be Squeezed Out?

GMO Payment Gateway Posts Strong 2Q Results but Continues to Be Expensive

ASKUL:  Post AGM Shakeout, ASKUL Independence Means Less Event-y, More Drifty-Growthy

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

We visited GMO PG last week to discuss their payment after delivery (PaD) business in detail and to assess the potential impact from Yahoo Japan’s partnership with Zozo. Our key takeaways are as follows<ul>
<li>For the payment processing (PP) business, while Zozo still accounts for a significant amount of revenue, GMO PG is focused on services and recurring monthly payments rather than goods-based EC for future growth and OP impact should be limited. <ul><li>The increasing momentum towards direct-to-consumer (D2C) EC should also help GMO PG and is a threat to Zozo’s growth prospects.</li></ul>
</li>
<li>For the payment after delivery business, while Zozo accounts for a substantial proportion of revenue, it will be difficult to replace GMO PG quickly and the non-Zozo business is growing much faster.</li>
<li>Softbank and Yahoo Japan may take a more conservative approach to consumer credit than Rakuten which may impact the battle for cashless dominance.</li>
<li>Mercari has their own in-house payment after delivery business but the nature of business is slightly different to that which GMO PG handles.</li>
</ul>

We visited GMO PG last week to discuss their payment after delivery (PaD) business in detail and to assess the potential impact from Yahoo Japan’s partnership with Zozo. Our key takeaways are as follows
For the payment processing (PP) business, while Zozo still accounts for a significant amount of revenue, GMO PG is focused on services and recurring monthly payments rather than goods-based EC for future growth and OP impact should be limited. The increasing momentum towards direct-to-consumer (D2C) EC should also help GMO PG and is a threat to Zozo’s growth prospects.

For the payment after delivery business, while Zozo accounts for a substantial proportion of revenue, it will be difficult to replace GMO PG quickly and the non-Zozo business is growing much faster.
Softbank and Yahoo Japan may take a more conservative approach to consumer credit than Rakuten which may impact the battle for cashless dominance.
Mercari has their own in-house payment after delivery business but the nature of business is slightly different to that which GMO PG handles.
  

GMO PG：ツケ払いビジネスとZOZOの企業訪問で得られた主な成果