China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

[Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US, BUY, TP US$45) TP Change]:Solid Execution Showcases Consolidator Potential

[Luckin Coffee Inc. (LKNCY US, UR) Earnings Review]: Operational Turnaround, Now All Eyes on Growth

[Luckin (LKNCY US, BUY, TP US$40) Rating Change]: Optimum Cup Sales and Price Mix Hit the Sweet Spot

[Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US, SELL, TP US$16.5) TP Change]: Milkteaization Diminishes Differentiation

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Luckin reported C1Q25 revenue in-line/6% vs. our estimate/consensus, and non-GAAP operating profit 9%/75% higher than our estimate/consensus, thanks to warmer weather and constrained marketing spending;</li>
<li>Despite Luckin pre-emptive lock-ins, rising coffee bean price shall still take its toll as Luckin's biggest rival Starbucks should be equally capable of managing the commodity price risk. </li>
<li>We keep Luckin as BUY rating but cut TP to US$39.</li>
</ul>


Luckin reported C1Q25 revenue in-line/6% vs. our estimate/consensus, and non-GAAP operating profit 9%/75% higher than our estimate/consensus, thanks to warmer weather and constrained marketing spending;
Despite Luckin pre-emptive lock-ins, rising coffee bean price shall still take its toll as Luckin's biggest rival Starbucks should be equally capable of managing the commodity price risk. 
We keep Luckin as BUY rating but cut TP to US$39.


[ラッキン（LKNCY US、買い、目標株価39米ドル）目標株価変更]：コーヒー豆の値上げは利益率を低下させるが、売上は増加