Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Over 15 years analysing Japanese and Asian stocks from a long/short perspective

I focus on cyclically driven sectors such as Gaming, Factory Automation and Autos

An eclectic background as a long-short analyst, upper management at a financial data startup through its listing, and as the founder of a team analysing big/alternative data, all of which supports independent and differentiated views... we hope

An appreciation for Mathematics drives the development of a "Micro-Quantamental" process which can provide a data-driven, historically-informed and semi-automated foundation upon which to layer more qualitative and judgemental analysis, thus improving investment decision-making speed and accuracy

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Matsukiyo: No Loss of Emphasis on Profitability, Looking to ASEAN for Growth

Cocokara and Matsukiyo: Potential Competition for Supermarkets and Convenience Stores

Drug-Fuelled Marriages and Macho Shachos* in Japan

Cocokara (3098) Going With MatsuKiyo (3088) But Ratio Overextended

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

After the close today <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cocokara-fine-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15447:1" rel="noopener">Cocokara Fine (3098 JP)</a> announced the details of its MOU with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/matsumotokiyoshi-holdings-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2259:1" rel="noopener">Matsumotokiyoshi Holdings Co (3088 JP)</a> for exclusive negotiations regarding a merger.The most significant details are:<ul>
<li>"A spirit of equality"</li>
<li>Duration for exclusivity is Jan 2020 but this can be extended</li>
</ul>This situation has been extensively covered on Smartkarma by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/michael-causton" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2415" rel="noopener">Michael Causton</a> with the latest piece being Travis' <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cocokara-3098-going-with-matsukiyo-3088-but-ratio-overextended" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:31733" rel="noopener">Cocokara (3098) Going With MatsuKiyo (3088) But Ratio Overextended.</a> Travis specifically references the spirit of quality as an important distinction and his insight is well worth reading.I will borrow Travis' references to the timeline:<blockquote>For more on this subject, see my previous piece <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cocokara-fine-cocokara" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30197" rel="noopener">Cocokara Fine は Cocokara いいね*</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/michael-causton" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2415" rel="noopener">Michael Causton</a>'s excellent and informative pieces on the deal and the sector <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/matsukiyo-and-cocokara-fine-tie-to-shake-up-drugstore-sector" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:29890" rel="noopener">Matsukiyo and Cocokara Fine Tie to Shake up Drugstore Sector</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-drugstores-set-to-expand-further" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:28119" rel="noopener">Japan Drugstores Set to Expand Further</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/drug-fuelled-marriages-and-macho-shachos-in-japan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30346" rel="noopener">Drug-Fuelled Marriages and Macho Shachos* in Japan</a>. Furthermore, two of his recent big picture pieces <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japanese-retailing-the-big-disruption-and-opportunity-in-the-next-5-years" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30770" rel="noopener">Japanese Retailing: The Big Disruption – and Opportunity – in the Next 5 Years</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/winners-and-losers-in-japanese-retailing-in-the-next-5-10-years" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30771" rel="noopener">Winners and Losers in Japanese Retailing in the Next 5-10 Years</a> are excellent backdrop, with the latter providing the SWOTs for the sector.</blockquote>In order to understand the potential scale of synergies and the likelihood of a merger actually going through we analysed the profit structure of the eight largest industry participants and teased out their growth strategies by conducting a quantitative analysis of their financials. Our results suggest that Cocokara Fine and Matsumotokiyoshi could be well-aligned for an integration. We discuss the details below.

After the close today Cocokara Fine (3098 JP) announced the details of its MOU with Matsumotokiyoshi Holdings Co (3088 JP) for exclusive negotiations regarding a merger.The most significant details are:
"A spirit of equality"
Duration for exclusivity is Jan 2020 but this can be extended
This situation has been extensively covered on Smartkarma by Travis Lundy and Michael Causton with the latest piece being Travis' Cocokara (3098) Going With MatsuKiyo (3088) But Ratio Overextended. Travis specifically references the spirit of quality as an important distinction and his insight is well worth reading.I will borrow Travis' references to the timeline:For more on this subject, see my previous piece Cocokara Fine は Cocokara いいね* and Michael Causton's excellent and informative pieces on the deal and the sector Matsukiyo and Cocokara Fine Tie to Shake up Drugstore Sector, Japan Drugstores Set to Expand Further, and Drug-Fuelled Marriages and Macho Shachos* in Japan. Furthermore, two of his recent big picture pieces Japanese Retailing: The Big Disruption – and Opportunity – in the Next 5 Years and Winners and Losers in Japanese Retailing in the Next 5-10 Years are excellent backdrop, with the latter providing the SWOTs for the sector.In order to understand the potential scale of synergies and the likelihood of a merger actually going through we analysed the profit structure of the eight largest industry participants and teased out their growth strategies by conducting a quantitative analysis of their financials. Our results suggest that Cocokara Fine and Matsumotokiyoshi could be well-aligned for an integration. We discuss the details below.

マツキヨとココカラの合併：量子分析により、マツキヨが実際は最適な組み合わせであることが示される

MatsukiyoCocokara

マツキヨとココカラの合併：量子分析により、マツキヨが実際は最適な組み合わせであることが示される