Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) / Equity Bottom-Up

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)

*Weak May 2020 Data: ACOM (8572.JP) released poor May 2020 monthly performance data on June 10th which exhibited negative consumer lending growth for the first time since 2014  - declining 0.6% YOY during the month. ACOM is chronically understates kaburai risk;* No Guidance Still: Senior management did not issue FY3/21 guidance, we remain in the dark regarding treatment of credit costs and its overseas operations; and  * MUFG Should Struggle Globally Too: The lack of provisioning is far from the only problem MUFG must manage. Post-COVID-19, we calculate that MUFG America’s will have a regulatory capital shortfall of up to USD 6.5 bn or 40% of MUFG America’s stated equity; continued impairments on subsidiaries; significant Softbank (9984.JP) exposure; and Morgan Stanley’s (MS.US) MUFG dilutive E*Trade (ETFC.US) transaction.

*Weak May 2020 Data: ACOM (8572.JP) released poor May 2020 monthly performance data on June 10th which exhibited negative consumer lending growth for the first time since 2014  - declining 0.6% YOY during the month. ACOM is chronically understates kaburai risk;* No Guidance Still: Senior management did not issue FY3/21 guidance, we remain in the dark regarding treatment of credit costs and its overseas operations; and  * MUFG Should Struggle Globally Too: The lack of provisioning is far from the only problem MUFG must manage. Post-COVID-19, we calculate that MUFG America’s will have a regulatory capital shortfall of up to USD 6.5 bn or 40% of MUFG America’s stated equity; continued impairments on subsidiaries; significant Softbank (9984.JP) exposure; and Morgan Stanley’s (MS.US) MUFG dilutive E*Trade (ETFC.US) transaction.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (Sponsored Adr) (SMFG US)

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (Sponsored Adr)

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) ADR (MUFG US)

MUFGとアコムの月次データは期待外れ