Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

An equity research analyst with over 7 years of experience in multiple sectors. Previously worked for one of the world's largest asset managers with about USD2.5trn in AUM, covering small and micro-cap companies in the consumer sphere across Europe and developed Asia. Also experienced in covering multiple industries including banking, insurance and asset management, retail, tech, telco and REIT.

Equity Analyst

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Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiseido-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1" rel="noopener">Shiseido Co Ltd (4911 JP)</a>, the biggest pureplay cosmetics company in Japan is generally the last cosmetics company to release its quarterly results.On 6th February 2020, Shiseido released its Q4 results and 2020 guidance. Revenue guidance was 0.4% above consensus as of 6th Feb while OP was 14.6% below consensus. About half of this OP difference is due to Shiseido’s CSR initiatives. The company has donated ¥165m as of Feb 2020 and it has also pledged 1% of sales from the Asian markets to the following initiatives:<ul>
<li>Donate to charity to support the restoration of daily lives.</li>
<li>Offer utility products from Shiseido Group to areas in need.</li>
<li>Offer various support to invigorate people through the power of beauty.</li>
</ul>Since Feb 6th guidance, consensus has adjusted its forecasts. The current 2020 revenue and OP estimates are 10.3% and 25.0% lower than company guidance.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fancl-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Shiseido</a> is scheduled to release its 1Q20 results on 12th May 2020. In this Insight, we provide a preview of Shiseido’s Q1 results using METI and Ministry of Finance industry data for January and February.Consensus estimates revenue of ¥246.5bn and OP of ¥20.0bn for Q1. It implies a 9.9% and 48.6% year-on-year decline for revenue and OP respectively.However, our analysis of industry data suggests that Shiseido’s revenue will undershoot even the revised consensus estimate by about 4%.

Shiseido Co Ltd (4911 JP), the biggest pureplay cosmetics company in Japan is generally the last cosmetics company to release its quarterly results.On 6th February 2020, Shiseido released its Q4 results and 2020 guidance. Revenue guidance was 0.4% above consensus as of 6th Feb while OP was 14.6% below consensus. About half of this OP difference is due to Shiseido’s CSR initiatives. The company has donated ¥165m as of Feb 2020 and it has also pledged 1% of sales from the Asian markets to the following initiatives:
Donate to charity to support the restoration of daily lives.
Offer utility products from Shiseido Group to areas in need.
Offer various support to invigorate people through the power of beauty.
Since Feb 6th guidance, consensus has adjusted its forecasts. The current 2020 revenue and OP estimates are 10.3% and 25.0% lower than company guidance.Shiseido is scheduled to release its 1Q20 results on 12th May 2020. In this Insight, we provide a preview of Shiseido’s Q1 results using METI and Ministry of Finance industry data for January and February.Consensus estimates revenue of ¥246.5bn and OP of ¥20.0bn for Q1. It implies a 9.9% and 48.6% year-on-year decline for revenue and OP respectively.However, our analysis of industry data suggests that Shiseido’s revenue will undershoot even the revised consensus estimate by about 4%.

資生堂2020年第1四半期決算プレビュー：市場はコンセンサスよりも慎重

Shiseido Company

資生堂2020年第1四半期決算プレビュー：市場はコンセンサスよりも慎重