U.S. September Nonfarm Payroll - A Strong Month and Less Downside Risk

US Banks - Strong Weekly Balance Sheet Figures for Loans, Loan Loss Reserves and Time Deposits

Economist (US Macro), RDQ Economics

Conrad DeQuadros

Economist (US Macro)

RDQ Economics

RDQ Economics provides global macroeconomic consulting services with an emphasis on U.S. economic fundamentals and monetary policy.  
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Our views are driven by consistent application of classical economic and monetary principles and has generated superior anticipation of changes in the stance of monetary policy and of movements in economic growth and inflation.
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The founders of RDQ Economics—John Ryding and Conrad DeQuadros—worked together on Wall Street for a decade, in the independent research space for nine years, and have experience in central banking at the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.  John and Conrad have worked closely with fixed income, foreign exchange, and equity traders and portfolio managers, which has enabled their analysis and advice to be tailored to a clientele that is focused on trading and investment decisions.

Macroeconomics

<p>Although the 156,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls in August was below the median consensus forecast, this was not a disappointing employment gain.  We have highlighted a quirk with August payrolls readings: in each of the last six years the first estimate of August payroll growth has come in below the prior three-month trend (by an average of 49,000) and below the median consensus forecast (by an average of 47,000).  Also, in seven of the last eight years the first release of August payrolls was…</p>

Although the 156,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls in August was below the median consensus forecast, this was not a disappointing employment gain.  We have highlighted a quirk with August payrolls readings: in each of the last six years the first estimate of August payroll growth has come in below the prior three-month trend (by an average of 49,000) and below the median consensus forecast (by an average of 47,000).  Also, in seven of the last eight years the first release of August payrolls was…

8月の非農業部門雇用者数の15万6000人増加は失望ではない