US Political Backdrop Keeps Economy Range Bound Despite Dovish Fed Pivot

US Treasury Market Questions Fed's Prospective Policy Path

Supportive Backdrop for US Equities, but the Events of 2000 Pose a Warning Against Complacency

Aggressive Start to Fed Policy Easing Cycle Aimed at Reducing Stress at Low Income Consumers?

Founder & Head of Research, Fortress Hill Advisors

Alex Ng

Founder & Head of Research

Fortress Hill Advisors

Founded in Hong Kong in 2019, Fortress Hill Advisor seeks to provide premium economic and financial researches.

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<ul>
<li>Post-Election U.S. fiscal policy can still cause stress in the Treasury market given the unsustainable U.S. budget deficit and the high risk of a rating agency downgrade in H1 2025. </li>
<li>However, 10yr U.S. Treasury yields above 4% now have a buffer and the prospect for Fed policy is also important. </li>
<li>If the economy remains resilient then post-election fiscal stress could push 10yr to 4.5% yields, but if the soft v hard landing debate reignites then Treasuries could be dominated.</li>
</ul>


Post-Election U.S. fiscal policy can still cause stress in the Treasury market given the unsustainable U.S. budget deficit and the high risk of a rating agency downgrade in H1 2025. 
However, 10yr U.S. Treasury yields above 4% now have a buffer and the prospect for Fed policy is also important. 
If the economy remains resilient then post-election fiscal stress could push 10yr to 4.5% yields, but if the soft v hard landing debate reignites then Treasuries could be dominated.


米国政府の債務と赤字――それは重要なのか？