US 10yr Triangle Geared for a Power Breakout

US 5Y-1Y Yield Curve Inverts, but 10Y-2Y Suggests US Will Narrowly Avert 2020 Recession

US Monetary Policy After The ‘Great U-Turn’

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

Our macro yield top call at 3.26% has sliced through support targets at 2.62% and 2.40% with 2.32% touted as a level that was expected to induce a bounce. Current pressure and the lower wedge support in yield calls for an adjustment to our bounce sequence.Intermediate cycle is moving into a cycle below our original target of 2.32%. A short term yield low will induce a bounce back to pattern resistance with risk of a secondary break higher on the back of noted indicator divergence that is not confirming recent lows in yield. This occurs when the market is saturated with bond long positions and consensus become complacent.We have some clear rally and fade targets with a secondary push higher in yield pivot level. A surprise rise in yield would help support the USD which has been gaining momentum and pressure emerging markets further.

Our macro yield top call at 3.26% has sliced through support targets at 2.62% and 2.40% with 2.32% touted as a level that was expected to induce a bounce. Current pressure and the lower wedge support in yield calls for an adjustment to our bounce sequence.Intermediate cycle is moving into a cycle below our original target of 2.32%. A short term yield low will induce a bounce back to pattern resistance with risk of a secondary break higher on the back of noted indicator divergence that is not confirming recent lows in yield. This occurs when the market is saturated with bond long positions and consensus become complacent.We have some clear rally and fade targets with a secondary push higher in yield pivot level. A surprise rise in yield would help support the USD which has been gaining momentum and pressure emerging markets further.

パターンリスクの中、米国10年債利回りは低水準に転じ、目標値に近づく