Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

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Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Macroeconomics

<p>The lock down in China due to the coronavirus will impact other economies via supply chains, notably in Asia. The automotive sector is particularly vulnerable to dislocation due to Wuhan's importance as a hub for auto parts production.</p>
<p>Incoming US economic data for early-2020  suggests accelerated growth, thereby vindicating the Fed's decision to banish recessionary psychology by three insurance policy rate reductions last year. Respectable labour demand is still not producing signs of overheating as testified by moderate wage inflation. </p>
<p>Since 2015 Q3, the decline in the unemployment rate has been slowed by a rise in the participation rate for prime-aged workers following a protracted decline that began in 2009. The rising participation rate has acted as a safety valve against rising wage inflation for the Fed by preventing a faster decline in the unemployment rate from its estimated natural rate. Meanwhile, wage inflation has been further curbed by the rising incidence of employment of workers who were previously not in the labour force. </p>
<div>Fed Chair Powell is concerned that  persistently low inflation will keep real interest rates too high, thereby being detrimental to the real economy, and, consequently, he is prepared to tolerate inflation breaching the 2% target. An unhinging of long-term inflationary expectations will not, however, be tolerated by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). </div>
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<div>Criticism of the FOMC's decision to purchase T-bills in the wake of stress in overnight funding markets last year has not gone unnoticed by some members. Fed Governor Quarles has suggested removing the stigma attached to discount window borrowing, as well as granting banks' holdings of Treasury securities the equivalent status to cash assets in meeting liquidity coverage requirements during times of systemic stress.</div>

The lock down in China due to the coronavirus will impact other economies via supply chains, notably in Asia. The automotive sector is particularly vulnerable to dislocation due to Wuhan's importance as a hub for auto parts production.
Incoming US economic data for early-2020  suggests accelerated growth, thereby vindicating the Fed's decision to banish recessionary psychology by three insurance policy rate reductions last year. Respectable labour demand is still not producing signs of overheating as testified by moderate wage inflation. 
Since 2015 Q3, the decline in the unemployment rate has been slowed by a rise in the participation rate for prime-aged workers following a protracted decline that began in 2009. The rising participation rate has acted as a safety valve against rising wage inflation for the Fed by preventing a faster decline in the unemployment rate from its estimated natural rate. Meanwhile, wage inflation has been further curbed by the rising incidence of employment of workers who were previously not in the labour force. 
Fed Chair Powell is concerned that  persistently low inflation will keep real interest rates too high, thereby being detrimental to the real economy, and, consequently, he is prepared to tolerate inflation breaching the 2% target. An unhinging of long-term inflationary expectations will not, however, be tolerated by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). 

Criticism of the FOMC's decision to purchase T-bills in the wake of stress in overnight funding markets last year has not gone unnoticed by some members. Fed Governor Quarles has suggested removing the stigma attached to discount window borrowing, as well as granting banks' holdings of Treasury securities the equivalent status to cash assets in meeting liquidity coverage requirements during times of systemic stress.

米国経済はFRBにとって株式投資に有利な政策背景となるが、バランスシートへの懸念は残る