Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Over 20 years of sell-side research experience across Global Metals & Mining, Cement, Industrials, and Commodities. Extensive first-hand mine and plant visits spanning India, Australia, China, the US, and the UK.
Hundreds of buy-side engagements across major global financial hubs in Asia, North America, and Europe. Also led a comprehensive client tour of China to deepen industry understanding.

Focused on fundamentals-driven analysis including earnings modeling, cost structures, and valuations using DCF and relative multiples. Global commodity cycles, supply-demand trends, and macro factors are integrated into sector calls. Research prioritizes inflection points from price, cost, and policy shifts, using a disciplined bottom-up approach supported by top-down macro screening.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Vale is guiding for stable iron ore production of 325–335 Mt in 2025 and steady copper and nickel growth, supported by disciplined capex and portfolio optimization.</li>
<li>While dam reparation exposures are fully provisioned, execution risks around ongoing environmental obligations and community projects remain a critical overhang.</li>
<li>The stock appears cheap at ~3.1x EV/EBITDA but looks relatively expensive on a reserve-based valuation, reflecting the market’s cautious view on long-term growth visibility and external risks.</li>
</ul>


Vale is guiding for stable iron ore production of 325–335 Mt in 2025 and steady copper and nickel growth, supported by disciplined capex and portfolio optimization.
While dam reparation exposures are fully provisioned, execution risks around ongoing environmental obligations and community projects remain a critical overhang.
The stock appears cheap at ~3.1x EV/EBITDA but looks relatively expensive on a reserve-based valuation, reflecting the market’s cautious view on long-term growth visibility and external risks.


Vale

ヴァーレ：評価パラドックス