Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Over 15 years analysing Japanese and Asian stocks from a long/short perspective

I focus on cyclically driven sectors such as Gaming, Factory Automation and Autos

An eclectic background as a long-short analyst, upper management at a financial data startup through its listing, and as the founder of a team analysing big/alternative data, all of which supports independent and differentiated views... we hope

An appreciation for Mathematics drives the development of a "Micro-Quantamental" process which can provide a data-driven, historically-informed and semi-automated foundation upon which to layer more qualitative and judgemental analysis, thus improving investment decision-making speed and accuracy

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Mercari (4385) - End-July TOPIX Inclusion Update

TOPIX July Rebalance: Good Performance, Low Progression, Should Trade Right Way

TOPIX Index Upweights: An Early Preview Of "The Big April Basket" 2023

Mercari – US GMV Is Downside Risk but Profitability Is a Larger Upside Risk

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Mercari’s 3Q results underwhelmed with both revenue (-4.5%) and OP (¥2.9bn loss vs. a predicted ¥1.0bn profit) missed. </li>
<li>Guidance was also weak and problems with rising fraudulent transactions in Japan and low tax reporting thresholds for sellers in the US are headwinds. </li>
<li>Nevertheless, the drastic fall in the stock price appears to have gotten far ahead of these problems and ignores the bright future of the company in our view.</li>
</ul>


Mercari’s 3Q results underwhelmed with both revenue (-4.5%) and OP (¥2.9bn loss vs. a predicted ¥1.0bn profit) missed. 
Guidance was also weak and problems with rising fraudulent transactions in Japan and low tax reporting thresholds for sellers in the US are headwinds. 
Nevertheless, the drastic fall in the stock price appears to have gotten far ahead of these problems and ignores the bright future of the company in our view.


Mercari – 문제, 문제, 하지만 우리는 어쨌든 괴롭힘을 당하고 있습니다