Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Over 15 years analysing Japanese and Asian stocks from a long/short perspective

I focus on cyclically driven sectors such as Gaming, Factory Automation and Autos

An eclectic background as a long-short analyst, upper management at a financial data startup through its listing, and as the founder of a team analysing big/alternative data, all of which supports independent and differentiated views... we hope

An appreciation for Mathematics drives the development of a "Micro-Quantamental" process which can provide a data-driven, historically-informed and semi-automated foundation upon which to layer more qualitative and judgemental analysis, thus improving investment decision-making speed and accuracy

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Japan: Moving Average Outliers - Lasertec, SanBio, Digital Arts, Modec & Leopalace21

🇯🇵 Japan: Moving Average Outliers - PKSHA, SanBio, Goldwin, ZOZO, Drugstores & ASICS

Modec: Petrobras Order Delays Negative but Orders from India and Mexico Could Support Backlog

MODEC: +8% on 2Q Earnings Surge, Gross Margin Recovery and Large Revenue Bump Should Continue

MODEC: Order Win in Mexico Is a Positive, Stock Rebounds 7% as MS Initiates with Buy

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/2840" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2840:1">Modec Inc (6269 JP)</a> reported strong 2018 results as operations for the year went smoothly and gross margin recovered to double digits in the fourth quarter with the company also releasing its contingency reserves resulting in a large uptick in SPC related earnings below the operating line.</p><table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td>Results vs. Guidance</td>
<td>Results vs. Consensus</td>
<td>Results vs. Consensus High</td>
<td></td>
<td>Guidance vs. Consensus</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>OP</td>
<td>+24%</td>
<td>+16%</td>
<td>+14%</td>
<td></td>
<td>-42%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Current Profit</td>
<td>+31%</td>
<td>+24%</td>
<td>+20%</td>
<td></td>
<td>-30%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>NP</td>
<td>+46%</td>
<td>+33%</td>
<td>+19%</td>
<td></td>
<td>-32%</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table><p>Like last year however, guidance disappointed as the company released what we consider to be lowball estimates. Nevertheless, the stock reacted positively as the strong results offset some of the recent negativity from the large fall in crude prices. We examine the degree of conservatism we see in guidance below.</p>

Modec Inc (6269 JP) reported strong 2018 results as operations for the year went smoothly and gross margin recovered to double digits in the fourth quarter with the company also releasing its contingency reserves resulting in a large uptick in SPC related earnings below the operating line.


Results vs. Guidance
Results vs. Consensus
Results vs. Consensus High

Guidance vs. Consensus


OP
+24%
+16%
+14%

-42%


Current Profit
+31%
+24%
+20%

-30%


NP
+46%
+33%
+19%

-32%

Like last year however, guidance disappointed as the company released what we consider to be lowball estimates. Nevertheless, the stock reacted positively as the strong results offset some of the recent negativity from the large fall in crude prices. We examine the degree of conservatism we see in guidance below.

MODEC: 실적 부진으로 주가 17% 급등, 전망치 하향 조정