Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Nearly 30 years of experience in the Korean/Asian equity research. Major sectors coverage include the following:
- Technology 
- Consumer 
- Special Situations/Deep Value Plays
- Tender Offers/M&As
- Holdcos/Stubs
- Asian Unicorns/Private Companies

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Review of Our IPO Research in 2018 & Change in Our IPO Research Process for 2019

Smartkarma’s Week That Was in JP/​​​​​KR: Softbank, Nissan, & A Star Is Born in 2018 Rewind to 1937

Upwork IPO Preview (Part 2) - Valuation Analysis

Equity Capital Markets

Qualtrics International / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Our base case EV for Qualtrics is US$5.2 billion. This is derived from our estimated sales of US$401.4 million in 2018 using an EV/Sales multiple of 12.9x, which is 30% premium to the average EV/Sales multiple of its peers. Our base case implied market cap for the company is US$5.7 billion adjusting for net cash. Our base case implied IPO price is US$26.50, which is 26% higher than the high end of the IPO price range of US$21. Therefore, we are positive on the Qualtrics IPO and we believe it provides an attractive upside. </li>
<li>We forecast Qualtrics to generate sales of US$401.4 million in 2018 (up 38.5% YoY) and US$541.8 million in 2019 (up 35% YoY). We expect the company's strong sales growth to be led by its subscription services. In 2018, we estimate that the subscription services represent 74.3% of total sales, followed by research on demand (17.5%), and professional services &amp; others (8.3%). </li>
<li>Qualtrics is expected to start trading next week in the US. Similar to other recent IT stocks in the US such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27427" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27427:1">Eventbrite Inc (EB US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27526" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27526:1">Elastic NV (ESTC US)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27465" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27465:1">Upwork (UPWK US)</a>, we expect a nice pop to Qualtrics' share price in the first day of trading.</li>
</ul>


Our base case EV for Qualtrics is US$5.2 billion. This is derived from our estimated sales of US$401.4 million in 2018 using an EV/Sales multiple of 12.9x, which is 30% premium to the average EV/Sales multiple of its peers. Our base case implied market cap for the company is US$5.7 billion adjusting for net cash. Our base case implied IPO price is US$26.50, which is 26% higher than the high end of the IPO price range of US$21. Therefore, we are positive on the Qualtrics IPO and we believe it provides an attractive upside. 
We forecast Qualtrics to generate sales of US$401.4 million in 2018 (up 38.5% YoY) and US$541.8 million in 2019 (up 35% YoY). We expect the company's strong sales growth to be led by its subscription services. In 2018, we estimate that the subscription services represent 74.3% of total sales, followed by research on demand (17.5%), and professional services &amp; others (8.3%). 
Qualtrics is expected to start trading next week in the US. Similar to other recent IT stocks in the US such as Eventbrite Inc (EB US), Elastic NV (ESTC US), and Upwork (UPWK US), we expect a nice pop to Qualtrics' share price in the first day of trading.


Qualtrics IPO 미리보기: 가치 평가 분석