Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Macroeconomics

Estimates for Q1 US real GDP growth have been steadily falling, thereby raising the importance of Q2 economic data for Fed policy. Financial markets have been quickly scaling back the chances of a federal funds rate increase at June’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.US economic conditions have not changed profoundly since the Presidential Election, and Q1 has provided a reality check about agenda implementation. Investors had unrealistic expectations for a quick economic recalibration.Higher business optimism is being mistakenly used as a proxy for animal spirits, which revolves around impulsive actions. Rhetorical animal spirits will not produce higher investment or faster growth unless companies are convinced the Trump Administration’s agenda will not be significantly diluted.Equity investors and the FOMC hold differing views about the size of untapped potential in the US economy, with the latter believing in a much lower speed limit. Powerful demographic forces have contributed to the slowing of potential growth and are beyond the control of the Trump Administration.Productivity growth has been abysmal in the current cycle in stark contrast to the late-1990s. Deregulation may enhance risk-taking, but it does not guarantee a renaissance in productivity based on the outcome of events during President Reagan’s first term in office.

Estimates for Q1 US real GDP growth have been steadily falling, thereby raising the importance of Q2 economic data for Fed policy. Financial markets have been quickly scaling back the chances of a federal funds rate increase at June’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.US economic conditions have not changed profoundly since the Presidential Election, and Q1 has provided a reality check about agenda implementation. Investors had unrealistic expectations for a quick economic recalibration.Higher business optimism is being mistakenly used as a proxy for animal spirits, which revolves around impulsive actions. Rhetorical animal spirits will not produce higher investment or faster growth unless companies are convinced the Trump Administration’s agenda will not be significantly diluted.Equity investors and the FOMC hold differing views about the size of untapped potential in the US economy, with the latter believing in a much lower speed limit. Powerful demographic forces have contributed to the slowing of potential growth and are beyond the control of the Trump Administration.Productivity growth has been abysmal in the current cycle in stark contrast to the late-1990s. Deregulation may enhance risk-taking, but it does not guarantee a renaissance in productivity based on the outcome of events during President Reagan’s first term in office.

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