China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

FX & Rates

<p>The RMB market has been strained the past two weeks as the RMB moved higher against the USD due to the USD fall.  The CNY has now broken 6.36 against the USD. As the USDx is highly negatively correlated with the bilateral USDCNY, we can expect the CNY to keep rising as long as the USD is drifting downwards. If basket weighting holds, the RMB should move open between 6.31-6.34.</p><p>This strengthening in the RMB stems directly from a downward drift in the USD against other major currencies.  As we can…</p>

The RMB market has been strained the past two weeks as the RMB moved higher against the USD due to the USD fall.  The CNY has now broken 6.36 against the USD. As the USDx is highly negatively correlated with the bilateral USDCNY, we can expect the CNY to keep rising as long as the USD is drifting downwards. If basket weighting holds, the RMB should move open between 6.31-6.34.This strengthening in the RMB stems directly from a downward drift in the USD against other major currencies.  As we can…

위안화 6.35달러 돌파, 중국 인민은행(PBOC) 촉발 가능성