Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Nicolas Baratte has been a financial analyst since 2000, covering the Semiconductor sector and Global Technology. Nicolas has worked on the sell-side for JPMorgan, CLSA. On the buy-side for a Tiger fund and Prudential. Nicolas has covered semiconductors, Asian hardware and components, and the Global Tech supply chain. Nicolas lives mostly in Taiwan, sometimes in France and is in New York regularly.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Preparing 5x 2nm Ramp into 2027; Altman 'Jokes' About Buying 100x More GPUs

Semi Key Indicators Q2 2025: PC, Smartphone Unit Shipments, Global Semi & WFE Sales All Looking Good

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC ADR Premium Remaining Unusually High; UMC & ASE Headroom Changes

Apple WWDC25: Nothing Announcements, and Nothing on AI.

Apple Mar-25 Inline, June Slightly Weak as Tariffs Hit Margins, Supplychain Reshuffling Out of China

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>IDC and Counterpoint released their 2Q25 smartphone estimates. Smartphone units increased 1-2% YoY. Best performer: Samsung +8% YoY, but this didn’t help 2Q operating profits. Vivo +5%, Apple +2%.</li>
<li>The smartphone market is desperately flat – or in slow decline. Smartphone is 76% of revenues for Qualcomm, 57% for Mediatek, 50% Apple and Xiaomi, 35% Samsung, 31% TSMC. Problem?</li>
<li>For Semiconductor firms (QCOM, MTK, TSM), chips ASP increases 10-15% at each generation, between node migration (N3, N2) and increasing AI functionalities. For hardware vendors (Apple, Samsung, Xiaomi), it’s worse.</li>
</ul>


IDC and Counterpoint released their 2Q25 smartphone estimates. Smartphone units increased 1-2% YoY. Best performer: Samsung +8% YoY, but this didn’t help 2Q operating profits. Vivo +5%, Apple +2%.
The smartphone market is desperately flat – or in slow decline. Smartphone is 76% of revenues for Qualcomm, 57% for Mediatek, 50% Apple and Xiaomi, 35% Samsung, 31% TSMC. Problem?
For Semiconductor firms (QCOM, MTK, TSM), chips ASP increases 10-15% at each generation, between node migration (N3, N2) and increasing AI functionalities. For hardware vendors (Apple, Samsung, Xiaomi), it’s worse.


TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

스마트폰 2Q25: 지루하다 지루하다