Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Nicolas Baratte has been a financial analyst since 2000, covering the Semiconductor sector and Global Technology. Nicolas has worked on the sell-side for JPMorgan, CLSA. On the buy-side for a Tiger fund and Prudential. Nicolas has covered semiconductors, Asian hardware and components, and the Global Tech supply chain. Nicolas lives mostly in Taiwan, sometimes in France and is in New York regularly.

NXP, Renesas, STMicro: Only Bad News. Auto & Industrial Semi Firms Give Poor Signals on End-Demand.

Infineon: Large Miss and Reset. Auto & Industrial Semi Is a Good Space for Shorts.

STMicro: Ugly but Mngt Says 1Q25 Is the Bottom. Restructuring Has to Start, Horrendous Inventories.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>3Q24 a bit better. 4Q guidance inline. The negative surprise is a 1Q25 double warning: revenue decline worse than normal seasonality and "manufacturing activity will not follow the usual profile”.</li>
<li>The Automotive outlook is very poor: decline in car production, decline in EV, inventories still high, increase in pricing pressure. Industrials still in inventory correction.  </li>
<li>Consensus will obviously revise lower for 1H25. The stock is trading at 12.5x 2025 estimates of yesterday, maybe 14-15x tomorrow's 2025 forecasts. Let's wait for that to happen. </li>
</ul>


3Q24 a bit better. 4Q guidance inline. The negative surprise is a 1Q25 double warning: revenue decline worse than normal seasonality and "manufacturing activity will not follow the usual profile”.
The Automotive outlook is very poor: decline in car production, decline in EV, inventories still high, increase in pricing pressure. Industrials still in inventory correction.  
Consensus will obviously revise lower for 1H25. The stock is trading at 12.5x 2025 estimates of yesterday, maybe 14-15x tomorrow's 2025 forecasts. Let's wait for that to happen. 


STMicro(STM): 더 나빠질 수 있을까? 네, 2025년 1분기에 악화될 겁니다. 그 변화가 올 때까지 기다리자고요.

STMicroelectronics NV

STMicro(STM): 더 나빠질 수 있을까? 네, 2025년 1분기에 악화될 겁니다. 그 변화가 올 때까지 기다리자고요.