Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital

Dr. Jim Walker

Chief Economist

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li><p>US Inflation and Interest Rates: The US CPI for April met expectations, triggering a stock rally, but detailed figures suggest inflation remains high, casting doubt on imminent Fed rate cuts.</p></li><li><p>Japan's Economic Contraction: Japan's GDP contracted by -2% annualized in Q1, marking the third consecutive quarter without growth, yet interest rate hikes are still expected despite the economic downturn.</p></li><li><p>Indonesia's Steady Growth: Indonesia reported a consistent 5.1% GDP growth for Q1, in line with expectations and historical performance, though the economy remains below its potential growth rate compared to peers like India and the Philippines.</p></li></ul>

US Inflation and Interest Rates: The US CPI for April met expectations, triggering a stock rally, but detailed figures suggest inflation remains high, casting doubt on imminent Fed rate cuts.Japan's Economic Contraction: Japan's GDP contracted by -2% annualized in Q1, marking the third consecutive quarter without growth, yet interest rate hikes are still expected despite the economic downturn.Indonesia's Steady Growth: Indonesia reported a consistent 5.1% GDP growth for Q1, in line with expectations and historical performance, though the economy remains below its potential growth rate compared to peers like India and the Philippines.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 17 May 2024

<ul>
<li>PMI Data: Mixed bag of Purchasing Managers Indices across Asia, with India showing record-breaking strength at 58.8.</li>
<li>Trade Performance: Recent trade data indicates resilience in China's exports despite global demand weakness.</li>
<li>Japan's Economic Struggles: Japan faces significant challenges, with exports below 2010 levels and key indicators pointing to deep economic trouble.</li>
</ul>


PMI Data: Mixed bag of Purchasing Managers Indices across Asia, with India showing record-breaking strength at 58.8.
Trade Performance: Recent trade data indicates resilience in China's exports despite global demand weakness.
Japan's Economic Struggles: Japan faces significant challenges, with exports below 2010 levels and key indicators pointing to deep economic trouble.


Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 3 May 2024

<ul><li>Indonesia raises interest rates unexpectedly, citing currency weakness.</li><li>Japan faces continued yen depreciation amid low interest rates.</li><li>China's economic indicators show mixed signals, with GDP growth but weak money supply growth.</li></ul>

Indonesia raises interest rates unexpectedly, citing currency weakness.Japan faces continued yen depreciation amid low interest rates.China's economic indicators show mixed signals, with GDP growth but weak money supply growth.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 26 Apr 2024

<ul>
<li>
<strong>China's GDP Performance:</strong> China's first quarter GDP growth exceeded expectations at 5.3%, sparking debates about data accuracy and manipulation.</li>
<li>
<strong>Singapore's Economic Revisions:</strong> Singapore's initial growth estimate of 0.5% was later revised down to 0.1%, underscoring challenges in producing accurate forecasts.</li>
<li>
<strong>Regional Trade Dynamics:</strong> While China reported a contraction in exports, a closer look revealed modest export growth. Japan and Korea struggled with declining exports and imports, highlighting challenges in domestic demand.</li>
</ul>



China's GDP Performance: China's first quarter GDP growth exceeded expectations at 5.3%, sparking debates about data accuracy and manipulation.

Singapore's Economic Revisions: Singapore's initial growth estimate of 0.5% was later revised down to 0.1%, underscoring challenges in producing accurate forecasts.

Regional Trade Dynamics: While China reported a contraction in exports, a closer look revealed modest export growth. Japan and Korea struggled with declining exports and imports, highlighting challenges in domestic demand.


Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 19 Apr 2024

<div data-testid="conversation-turn-25"><div><div data-message-author-role="assistant" data-message-id="b4df65dc-3092-48db-bd2c-4e6ccb2d72a0"><ul><li>Busy week with US interest rates, Thailand's monetary policy, and Vietnam's economic dynamics.</li><li>Analysis reveals US inflation concerns impacting interest rate expectations, while Thailand faces challenges balancing government interference and economic growth.</li><li>Vietnam's mixed economic indicators reflect external sector resilience but domestic sector weakness, prompting investment adjustments including removal of short on US dollar and introduction of long positions on gold and copper.</li></ul></div></div><div></div></div>

Busy week with US interest rates, Thailand's monetary policy, and Vietnam's economic dynamics.Analysis reveals US inflation concerns impacting interest rate expectations, while Thailand faces challenges balancing government interference and economic growth.Vietnam's mixed economic indicators reflect external sector resilience but domestic sector weakness, prompting investment adjustments including removal of short on US dollar and introduction of long positions on gold and copper.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 12 Apr 2024

Jim Walker is the chief economist at Aletheia Analyst Network Limited, an independent research platform for the Asia Pacific region. Prior to joining Aletheia he was the founder and chief economist at Asianomics Group an economics and strategy research consultancy company formed in late 2007. 

Before establishing Asianomics he was the chief economist at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets. He joined CLSA in late 1991. Over the years Dr Jim achieved numerous ‘best economist’ rankings in the Asiamoney, Institutional Investor and Greenwich surveys of fund managers. In 1995 he wrote about the prospect of Asia being forced off its de facto dollar peg “within the next two-three years”. The Asian Crisis, precipitated by the Thai baht devaluation, began in July 1997.

In recent years he is best known for forecasting the US 2007 downturn and financial sector meltdown in his series of ‘Apocalypse’ reports. He remains deeply sceptical of the prevailing wisdom in central banks’ approach to monetary policy.

Over the years he has also developed an approach to analysing Asian economies based on profit and credit cycles where the importance of investment spending as the driver of economic activity is explained.

Early in his career he worked in his native Scotland as a research fellow at the Fraser of Allander Institute for Research on the Scottish Economy, and then at The Royal Bank of Scotland’s Edinburgh headquarters. He holds a Bachelor of Arts Honours degree and a doctorate in economics from the University of Strathclyde, Glasgow.