Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Happy Wednesday from Copenhagen.</li><li>Trump now has to deal with a reality where Russia is not going to end this war without being forced to—probably always the case—but Trump allowed himself to be friend-zoned by Putin in the run-up to these peace talks.</li><li>Various media outlets have already reported that a sanctions package is being prepared to put pressure on Russia, and in the following, we’ll try to assess the potential content and ramifications of such a package.</li></ul>

Happy Wednesday from Copenhagen.Trump now has to deal with a reality where Russia is not going to end this war without being forced to—probably always the case—but Trump allowed himself to be friend-zoned by Putin in the run-up to these peace talks.Various media outlets have already reported that a sanctions package is being prepared to put pressure on Russia, and in the following, we’ll try to assess the potential content and ramifications of such a package.

The Drill: Input prices about to go Nuclear

<ul><li>Morning from Europe.</li><li>Trump’s classical stop-and-go approach to negotiations is starting to get baked into markets, but we’re still surprised by the extent of market moves when these impulsive threats are announced on Truth Social — and markets remain poor at assessing the “realistic outcomes” of this approach.</li><li>On Friday, markets at one point priced in a 40–60% probability that 50% tariffs on the EU would actually take effect on June 1.</li></ul>

Morning from Europe.Trump’s classical stop-and-go approach to negotiations is starting to get baked into markets, but we’re still surprised by the extent of market moves when these impulsive threats are announced on Truth Social — and markets remain poor at assessing the “realistic outcomes” of this approach.On Friday, markets at one point priced in a 40–60% probability that 50% tariffs on the EU would actually take effect on June 1.

Steno Signals #198 – A 20–25% Weaker USD May Solve All Trump’s Problems

Commodities

Copper is a chemical element with symbol Cu (from Latin: cuprum) and atomic number 29. It is a soft, malleable and ductile metal with very high thermal and electrical conductivity. A freshly exposed surface of pure copper has a reddish-orange color. It is used as a conductor of heat and electricity, as a building material and as a constituent of various metal alloys, such as Sterling silver used in jewelry, cupronickel used to make marine hardware and coins and constantan used in strain gauges and thermocouples for temperature measurement.

<ul><li>Greetings from Copenhagen.</li><li>We’ve previously advocated a long tilt toward commodities, as both the U.S. and global growth outlooks are being repriced amid the reopening of trade and the sudden realization that the U.S., China, and even Europe have collectively slammed the deficit accelerator—rather than the brakes.</li><li>Everywhere you look, countries are ramping up fiscal spending to cushion the blow of tariffs.</li></ul>

Greetings from Copenhagen.We’ve previously advocated a long tilt toward commodities, as both the U.S. and global growth outlooks are being repriced amid the reopening of trade and the sudden realization that the U.S., China, and even Europe have collectively slammed the deficit accelerator—rather than the brakes.Everywhere you look, countries are ramping up fiscal spending to cushion the blow of tariffs.

The Drill – The Commodity “Super”cycle

<ul><li>Morning from Copenhagen ahead of a big week.</li><li>I was coincidentally sitting in front of the screens when Moody’s announced its downgrade of the US late in the Friday session, and the timing was admittedly peculiar—with just 5–10 minutes left of futures trading before the closing bell.</li><li>Back in August 2023, when Fitch downgraded the US, it did spark a mild risk-off environment, with the long end of the yield curve continuing its upward trend.</li></ul>

Morning from Copenhagen ahead of a big week.I was coincidentally sitting in front of the screens when Moody’s announced its downgrade of the US late in the Friday session, and the timing was admittedly peculiar—with just 5–10 minutes left of futures trading before the closing bell.Back in August 2023, when Fitch downgraded the US, it did spark a mild risk-off environment, with the long end of the yield curve continuing its upward trend.

Steno Signals #197 – The Mood(Y)’s Is Bad in the Fiat

<ul>
<li>Greetings from Copenhagen.</li>
<li>The global macro landscape is shifting rapidly, with U.S. policy priorities evolving just as quickly.</li>
<li>The administration is now 1) refocusing on the Middle East, 2) signaling that a Ukraine–Russia deal is inching closer, and 3) initiating currency policy discussions with Asian nations—many of which are active FX manipulators.</li>
</ul>


Greetings from Copenhagen.
The global macro landscape is shifting rapidly, with U.S. policy priorities evolving just as quickly.
The administration is now 1) refocusing on the Middle East, 2) signaling that a Ukraine–Russia deal is inching closer, and 3) initiating currency policy discussions with Asian nations—many of which are active FX manipulators.


The Drill – When the Facts Change, So Do We

Andreas is the founder and Head of Research of the European Power Research house "Steno Research." Building on years of experience as Global Chief Strategist at Nordea Bank, he is one of the most quoted and sought-after macro analysts out there. Andreas’ expertise is the macro strategy, energy, real estate and equity spaces, but doesn’t shy away from hot takes on other topics if the underlying analysis is strong enough. 

Andreas anchors the weekly editorial ‘Steno Signals’ and other watch series from Steno Research.

Andreas Steno
Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist
• Steno Research

The Drill: Input prices about to go Nuclear

Happy Wednesday from Copenhagen. Trump now has to deal with a reality where Russia is not going to end this war without being forced to—probably...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #198 – A 20–25% Weaker USD May Solve All Trump’s Problems

Morning from Europe. Trump’s classical stop-and-go approach to negotiations is starting to get baked into markets, but we’re still surprised by...

Steno Research

The Drill – The Commodity “Super”cycle

Greetings from Copenhagen. We’ve previously advocated a long tilt toward commodities, as both the U.S. and global growth outlooks are being...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #197 – The Mood(Y)’s Is Bad in the Fiat

Morning from Copenhagen ahead of a big week. I was coincidentally sitting in front of the screens when Moody’s announced its downgrade of the US...

Steno Research

The Drill – When the Facts Change, So Do We

Greetings from Copenhagen. The global macro landscape is shifting rapidly, with U.S. policy priorities evolving just as quickly. The...

Steno Research