Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

Creating Wealth through Alpha and Compounding

Yellowstone Equity

Providing unbiased and independent research on Indian equities to global institutions and individual investors


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Regulatory Disclosure: 
Note that Ankit Agrawal (Proprietor of Yellowstone Equity) is a SEBI registered Research Analyst (Registration No.: INH000007216). Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

Research Analyst Contact Details:
Address: A-412, Shilp Aaron, Sindhu Bhavan Road, Ahmedabad, Gujarat - 380059
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289

Compliance/Grievance Officer:
Name: Ankit Agrawal
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289
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Equity Bottom-Up

Bajaj Finance Limited is a financial services company that operates branches in India, which provide an assortment of financial services.

<ul>
<li>BAF reported a decent Q4FY24 led by strong AUM growth and robust customer acquisition. Adjusted for the impact of the regulatory ban, Q4FY24 results were in line with the expectation.  </li>
<li>The biggest negative surprise in Q4FY24 was the 21bp NIM compression. NIM compressed led by AUM composition shifting incrementally to secured assets. </li>
<li>BAF is optimistic on growth across segments, except Rural B2C where risk metrics are somewhat elevated; however this should normalize, given Rural B2B is doing fine.</li>
</ul>


BAF reported a decent Q4FY24 led by strong AUM growth and robust customer acquisition. Adjusted for the impact of the regulatory ban, Q4FY24 results were in line with the expectation.  
The biggest negative surprise in Q4FY24 was the 21bp NIM compression. NIM compressed led by AUM composition shifting incrementally to secured assets. 
BAF is optimistic on growth across segments, except Rural B2C where risk metrics are somewhat elevated; however this should normalize, given Rural B2B is doing fine.


Bajaj Finance (BAF): Strengthening Franchise to Sustain Growth Longevity

HDFC Bank Ltd. offers a wide range of services to the global corporate sector. The Bank provides corporate banking and custodial services and is active in the treasury and capital markets. HDFC also markets project advisory services and capital market products such as Global Deposit Receipts, Euro currency loans, and Euro currency bonds.

<ul>
<li>While HDFCB's results have been somewhat lackluster over the past couple of quarters, this has been largely due to merger-related drags, tight liquidity and irrational competition in the marketplace.</li>
<li>From a medium-to-long-term perspective, the growth prospects for HDFCB remain tremendously attractive despite its large size, as evident from its consistent market share gains in deposits.</li>
<li>Q4FY24 earnings came largely in line with the expectation in terms of core earnings, except for one-off gain from an asset sale that was more than offset by floating provisions.</li>
</ul>


While HDFCB's results have been somewhat lackluster over the past couple of quarters, this has been largely due to merger-related drags, tight liquidity and irrational competition in the marketplace.
From a medium-to-long-term perspective, the growth prospects for HDFCB remain tremendously attractive despite its large size, as evident from its consistent market share gains in deposits.
Q4FY24 earnings came largely in line with the expectation in terms of core earnings, except for one-off gain from an asset sale that was more than offset by floating provisions.


HDFC Bank (HDFCB): Looking Beyond Short-Term Headwinds

RPSG Ventures Limited operates as a venture capital investment company. The Company focuses on information technology, business process outsourcing, real estate, and entertainment sectors. CESC Ventures serves customers in India.

<ul>
<li>With around 3.4% QoQ CC revenue growth in Q3FY24, the BPO business, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/firstsource-solutions-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3099:1" rel="noopener">Firstsource Solutions ("Firstsource")</a>, is recovering back to normal, after seeing cyclical dip over the past couple of years.</li>
<li>The FMCG business is scaling up well. Q3FY24 revenues came in at INR 135cr, a growth of around 12% QoQ, led by festive season demand. YoY growth was 17%+.</li>
<li>The Sports business reported muted revenues in Q3FY24 as currently the revenue stream is dominated by the IPL event which typically happens in the March to June period.</li>
</ul>


With around 3.4% QoQ CC revenue growth in Q3FY24, the BPO business, Firstsource Solutions ("Firstsource"), is recovering back to normal, after seeing cyclical dip over the past couple of years.
The FMCG business is scaling up well. Q3FY24 revenues came in at INR 135cr, a growth of around 12% QoQ, led by festive season demand. YoY growth was 17%+.
The Sports business reported muted revenues in Q3FY24 as currently the revenue stream is dominated by the IPL event which typically happens in the March to June period.


RPSG Ventures: FMCG Business Is Scaling Up Well | BPO Business Is Recovering

Nesco Ltd. is a diversified company involved in manufacturing and engineering products for railways and forging,  realty development, and runs an exhibition center.

<ul>
<li>Nesco reported a strong Q3FY24 led by significant growth in the exhibition business. It grew by 55%+ YoY and grew 3%+ QoQ despite Q2 being a seasonally strong quarter.</li>
<li>The IT business performed steady with revenues at around INR 80cr and EBIT at around 65cr. Revenue declined by -4% QoQ, led by slight decline in occupancy.</li>
<li>Nesco is now on track to beat our prior FY24 upgraded PAT estimate of INR 330cr+. It may now end FY24 with a PAT of INR 350cr+.</li>
</ul>


Nesco reported a strong Q3FY24 led by significant growth in the exhibition business. It grew by 55%+ YoY and grew 3%+ QoQ despite Q2 being a seasonally strong quarter.
The IT business performed steady with revenues at around INR 80cr and EBIT at around 65cr. Revenue declined by -4% QoQ, led by slight decline in occupancy.
Nesco is now on track to beat our prior FY24 upgraded PAT estimate of INR 330cr+. It may now end FY24 with a PAT of INR 350cr+.


Rajshree Polypack Limited manufactures packaging products. The Company offers coffee cups, trays, lids, plates, bowls, and other containers, as well as plastics rigid sheet. Rajshree Polypack serves dairy, beverages, retail, pharmaceuticals, and electronics industries in India.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rajshree-polypack-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33486:1" rel="noopener">Rajshree Polypack ("RPPL")</a> reported a robust Q3FY24 led by strong volume growth of 29%+ YoY. EBITDA margin also expanded leading to EBITDA growth of 35%+ YoY.</li>
<li>Export business continues to grow steadily with quarterly run-rate now at INR 10cr. This suggests that on an annualized basis, exports could be INR 40cr vs INR 30cr guided earlier.</li>
<li>Injection molding business is doing well and has reached optimum capacity utilization. RPPL is exploring to expand this capacity and is also expecting it to become profitable from next quarter.</li>
</ul>



Rajshree Polypack ("RPPL") reported a robust Q3FY24 led by strong volume growth of 29%+ YoY. EBITDA margin also expanded leading to EBITDA growth of 35%+ YoY.
Export business continues to grow steadily with quarterly run-rate now at INR 10cr. This suggests that on an annualized basis, exports could be INR 40cr vs INR 30cr guided earlier.
Injection molding business is doing well and has reached optimum capacity utilization. RPPL is exploring to expand this capacity and is also expecting it to become profitable from next quarter.


I possess investment research experience across asset classes and geographies, acquired at Investcorp (New York) and Howe & Rusling (Rochester). At Investcorp, an alternative asset manager, I was part of an investment team managing >$1bn in discretionary client assets. I was also a member of investment recommendation, monitoring, cross-asset strategy and macro outlook committees that met periodically for investment decisions and top-down views. At Howe & Rusling, a long-only asset manager, I helped cover US large-cap equity investments across sectors for growth and income focused portfolios as well as assisted in managing a US small-cap growth focused equity portfolio. I possess an MBA in finance and corporate accounting from University of Rochester in US, a CFA Charter, and an Engineering degree from Indian Institute of Technology Bombay in India.  

My current focus is L/S equity fundamental research across market cap and sectors with an eye on corporate governance and forensic accounting. I am currently based in India and my current coverage universe is biased towards India.

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Regulatory Disclosure: Note that Ankit Agrawal (Proprietor of Yellowstone Equity) is a SEBI registered Research Analyst (Registration No.: INH000007216). Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

Research Analyst Contact Details -
Address: A-602, Titanium Business Park, Makarba, Ahmedabad - 380051 |
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com |
Mobile: +91-7575817289

Compliance/Grievance Officer -
Name: Ankit Agrawal |
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com |
Mobile: +91-7575817289
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