Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital

Dr. Jim Walker

Chief Economist

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li data-start="0" data-end="156"><p data-start="2" data-end="156">United States shows deepening slowdown with weak ISM manufacturing, falling employment, and declining private payrolls, signaling rising recession risk.</p></li><li data-start="157" data-end="277"><p data-start="159" data-end="277">India and China exhibit relatively constructive economic prospects, contrasting with softness in advanced economies.</p></li><li data-start="278" data-end="428" data-is-last-node=""><p data-start="280" data-end="428" data-is-last-node="">Asian indicators are mixed, with Indonesia struggling on trade and Hong Kong retail sales recovering gradually but remaining below pre-COVID levels.</p></li></ul>

United States shows deepening slowdown with weak ISM manufacturing, falling employment, and declining private payrolls, signaling rising recession risk.India and China exhibit relatively constructive economic prospects, contrasting with softness in advanced economies.Asian indicators are mixed, with Indonesia struggling on trade and Hong Kong retail sales recovering gradually but remaining below pre-COVID levels.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 5 Dec 2025

<ul><li data-start="0" data-end="173"><p data-start="2" data-end="173">United States recession indicators are turning increasingly negative, with construction, retail, and regional Federal Reserve surveys signalling broad economic weakness.</p></li><li data-start="174" data-end="303"><p data-start="176" data-end="303">Bank of Korea held rates steady, while Asia shows mixed but occasionally strong export trends despite global trade frictions.</p></li><li data-start="304" data-end="447" data-is-last-node=""><p data-start="306" data-end="447" data-is-last-node="">Regional Federal Reserve manufacturing and service activity reports posted sharp declines, reinforcing a deteriorating United States outlook.</p></li></ul>

United States recession indicators are turning increasingly negative, with construction, retail, and regional Federal Reserve surveys signalling broad economic weakness.Bank of Korea held rates steady, while Asia shows mixed but occasionally strong export trends despite global trade frictions.Regional Federal Reserve manufacturing and service activity reports posted sharp declines, reinforcing a deteriorating United States outlook.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 28 Nov 2025

<ul><li data-start="0" data-end="130"><p data-start="2" data-end="130">U.S. data releases are expected to clarify economic conditions while political pressure complicates monetary policy sentiment.</p></li><li data-start="131" data-end="248"><p data-start="133" data-end="248">Japan’s new leadership has escalated geopolitical tensions with China through unnecessary provocative statements.</p></li><li data-start="249" data-end="360" data-is-last-node=""><p data-start="251" data-end="360" data-is-last-node="">Asian growth remains mixed but resilient, led by strong performances in Vietnam, India, Taiwan, and Malaysia.</p></li></ul>

U.S. data releases are expected to clarify economic conditions while political pressure complicates monetary policy sentiment.Japan’s new leadership has escalated geopolitical tensions with China through unnecessary provocative statements.Asian growth remains mixed but resilient, led by strong performances in Vietnam, India, Taiwan, and Malaysia.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 21 Nov 2025

<article dir="auto" tabindex="-1" data-turn-id="request-WEB:77fe167c-9100-4427-8bf0-6f7641f02742-1" data-testid="conversation-turn-4" data-scroll-anchor="true" data-turn="assistant"><div><div><div><div data-message-author-role="assistant" data-message-id="b20e60c3-1671-45fc-8ecf-3962dd57fc1b" data-message-model-slug="gpt-5-1"><div><div><ul data-start="0" data-end="411" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node=""><li data-start="0" data-end="147"><p data-start="2" data-end="147">India delivers exceptionally low headline inflation while Japan and the United Kingdom face persistent price pressures and weak growth signals.</p></li><li data-start="148" data-end="278"><p data-start="150" data-end="278">Vietnam undergoes political restructuring, yet I see improving economic prospects driven by potential domestic-demand reforms.</p></li><li data-start="279" data-end="411" data-is-last-node=""><p data-start="281" data-end="411" data-is-last-node="">China’s seemingly weak October data reflect calendar effects, with monetary indicators instead pointing to strengthening momentum.</p></li></ul></div></div></div></div><div></div><div><div></div></div></div></div></article>

India delivers exceptionally low headline inflation while Japan and the United Kingdom face persistent price pressures and weak growth signals.Vietnam undergoes political restructuring, yet I see improving economic prospects driven by potential domestic-demand reforms.China’s seemingly weak October data reflect calendar effects, with monetary indicators instead pointing to strengthening momentum.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 14 Nov 2025

<ul><li>Bank of Japan (BoJ): BoJ kept rates unchanged at 0.5%, despite 3% inflation — a clear policy mismatch.</li><li>Federal Reserve (US): The Fed cut rates despite inflation running above target (≈3.6% annualized).</li><li>China: Industrial profits up 21.6% YoY in September, marking a two-month streak (August: +20.4%).</li></ul>

Bank of Japan (BoJ): BoJ kept rates unchanged at 0.5%, despite 3% inflation — a clear policy mismatch.Federal Reserve (US): The Fed cut rates despite inflation running above target (≈3.6% annualized).China: Industrial profits up 21.6% YoY in September, marking a two-month streak (August: +20.4%).

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 31 Oct 2025

Jim Walker is the chief economist at Aletheia Analyst Network Limited, an independent research platform for the Asia Pacific region. Prior to joining Aletheia he was the founder and chief economist at Asianomics Group an economics and strategy research consultancy company formed in late 2007. 

Before establishing Asianomics he was the chief economist at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets. He joined CLSA in late 1991. Over the years Dr Jim achieved numerous ‘best economist’ rankings in the Asiamoney, Institutional Investor and Greenwich surveys of fund managers. In 1995 he wrote about the prospect of Asia being forced off its de facto dollar peg “within the next two-three years”. The Asian Crisis, precipitated by the Thai baht devaluation, began in July 1997.

In recent years he is best known for forecasting the US 2007 downturn and financial sector meltdown in his series of ‘Apocalypse’ reports. He remains deeply sceptical of the prevailing wisdom in central banks’ approach to monetary policy.

Over the years he has also developed an approach to analysing Asian economies based on profit and credit cycles where the importance of investment spending as the driver of economic activity is explained.

Early in his career he worked in his native Scotland as a research fellow at the Fraser of Allander Institute for Research on the Scottish Economy, and then at The Royal Bank of Scotland’s Edinburgh headquarters. He holds a Bachelor of Arts Honours degree and a doctorate in economics from the University of Strathclyde, Glasgow.