Steno Research

Elias Lisberg Glistrup

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Welcome to this week’s edition of our EM-focused weekly editorial.</li><li>This week, we’ve decided to look into the reemerging weakness in Asian FX, and how this corresponds with the still strong momentum in gold prices.</li><li>Gold rallies have historically coincided with a weaker USD.</li></ul>

Welcome to this week’s edition of our EM-focused weekly editorial.This week, we’ve decided to look into the reemerging weakness in Asian FX, and how this corresponds with the still strong momentum in gold prices.Gold rallies have historically coincided with a weaker USD.

EM Gold Rush: The pressure valve amid Asian FX debasement risks?

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Welcome to this week’s rundown of our portfolio, its performance, and our most clear-cut conviction for the period ahead.</li><li>The cocktail of better economic activity and geopolitical tensions provided tailwinds for our long crude bet, which reached its take profit level Tuesday, and hence we are out of our oil position with a significant profit.</li><li>Most notably, and reflecting our still cyclically tilted portfolio allocations, we see growth trending higher in the cyclical parts of the economy through April on our models and nowcasts.</li></ul>

Welcome to this week’s rundown of our portfolio, its performance, and our most clear-cut conviction for the period ahead.The cocktail of better economic activity and geopolitical tensions provided tailwinds for our long crude bet, which reached its take profit level Tuesday, and hence we are out of our oil position with a significant profit.Most notably, and reflecting our still cyclically tilted portfolio allocations, we see growth trending higher in the cyclical parts of the economy through April on our models and nowcasts.

Portfolio Watch: The Real World Is Reflating Again

<ul><li>We see growth trending higher in the cyclical parts of the economy through April on our models and nowcasts, and Korean industries are well-positioned to capitalize on global cyclical tailwinds.</li><li>Especially as Chinese economic activity picks up pace.</li><li>The Caixin PMI suggests expansion, and given trade ties and scarcity of semis this should, all else equal, continue to boost Korean exports.</li></ul>

We see growth trending higher in the cyclical parts of the economy through April on our models and nowcasts, and Korean industries are well-positioned to capitalize on global cyclical tailwinds.Especially as Chinese economic activity picks up pace.The Caixin PMI suggests expansion, and given trade ties and scarcity of semis this should, all else equal, continue to boost Korean exports.

Emerging Markets: Legs to the Korea case or time to cash in?

<ul><li>Stagnant growth and price deflation have defined the term Japanization, and, due to rapidly rising debt levels in conjunction with aging populations, long been the striking worry for many economists.</li><li>Post-Covid inflation has shifted the narrative however, and fears of it becoming structural has taken over as the new doom-scenario globally.</li><li>For Japan though, inflation is not so much a fear as a hope, and we see signs that Japan is in fact achieving sustained inflation.</li></ul>

Stagnant growth and price deflation have defined the term Japanization, and, due to rapidly rising debt levels in conjunction with aging populations, long been the striking worry for many economists.Post-Covid inflation has shifted the narrative however, and fears of it becoming structural has taken over as the new doom-scenario globally.For Japan though, inflation is not so much a fear as a hope, and we see signs that Japan is in fact achieving sustained inflation.

Reflation Watch: Has Japan turned a page, and have markets gotten ahead of themselves?

<ul><li>Our early conviction in pro-cyclical trends keeps getting confirmed.</li><li>Initially, our nowcast indicator for China signaled a positive outlook, and most notably this week, the Li Keqiang Index has experienced its strongest monthly surge since 1999.</li><li>Consequently, Asian currencies and the AUD still appear undervalued when compared to the early yet unfolding expansion outside the US.</li></ul>

Our early conviction in pro-cyclical trends keeps getting confirmed.Initially, our nowcast indicator for China signaled a positive outlook, and most notably this week, the Li Keqiang Index has experienced its strongest monthly surge since 1999.Consequently, Asian currencies and the AUD still appear undervalued when compared to the early yet unfolding expansion outside the US.

Portfolio Watch: Data green-lighting continued rally – cautious metals however

Independent Insight Provider, Steno Research

Having finished his BSc last summer, Elias is currently studying for his master’s in Finance and Strategic Management at Copenhagen Business School. As a Junior Analyst, Elias supports the financial division of the business and provides market research and analyses which contribute to ‘Steno Signals’ and the ‘Watch Series’.