Founder, BWS Financial Inc

Hamed Khorsand

Founder

Independent Stock Specific Research

BWS Financial Inc

BWS provides independent stock specific research focused on companies with distinct value that are going through a special situation where there is a tangible catalyst not priced in. The catalyst can be anything from new product, restructuring, M&A, management change, change in business strategy, etc. BWS’s focus is to understand the change and evaluate the potential return for investors.

BWS utilizes a self formed proprietary approach in discovering stocks by putting great emphasis on deep research. BWS does generate short recommendations following a similar criteria.

Equity Bottom-Up

Talen Energy Corporation provides utility services. The Company generates, distributes, transmits, and markets electricity, as well as produces and supplies natural gas and other renewable energy products for residential and commercial users. Talen Energy serves customers in the United States.

<ul>
<li>TLN held an investor day where its management laid out the free cash flow the Company should generate over the next two years and how it was going to happen.   </li>
<li>TLN is projecting adjusted EBITDA that makes our estimate look very conservative.    TLN is forecasting 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $926 million to $1.175 billion. </li>
<li>The expected free cash flow over the next two years is powering TLN to raise their stock buyback program by $1.1 billion.</li>
</ul>


TLN held an investor day where its management laid out the free cash flow the Company should generate over the next two years and how it was going to happen.   
TLN is projecting adjusted EBITDA that makes our estimate look very conservative.    TLN is forecasting 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $926 million to $1.175 billion. 
The expected free cash flow over the next two years is powering TLN to raise their stock buyback program by $1.1 billion.


TLN: Powered for Free Cash Flow, PT to $185

Immersion Corporation develops and licenses hardware and software technologies that enable users to interact with computers using their sense of touch.  The Company's patented TouchSense technologies enable computer peripheral devices to deliver tactile sensations that correspond to on-screen events.

<ul>
<li>IMMR reported second quarter results that included partial results from Barnes &amp; Noble Education (BNED), which IMMR owns approximately 42 percent of.   </li>
<li>We believe the decision to carry the BNED position at investment value might have distorted the true value of IMMR.  </li>
<li>Hidden in IMMR’s 10Q filing was the resolution of the patent lawsuit against Xiaomi. The settlement resulted in IMMR reporting a larger than expected revenue figure for IMMR. </li>
</ul>


IMMR reported second quarter results that included partial results from Barnes &amp; Noble Education (BNED), which IMMR owns approximately 42 percent of.   
We believe the decision to carry the BNED position at investment value might have distorted the true value of IMMR.  
Hidden in IMMR’s 10Q filing was the resolution of the patent lawsuit against Xiaomi. The settlement resulted in IMMR reporting a larger than expected revenue figure for IMMR. 


Ubiquiti Inc. provides wireless networking products and solutions. The Company offers radios, antennas, and management tools that have been designed to deliver carrier class performance for wireless networking and other applications in the unlicensed radio frequency. Ubiquiti operates in the State of New York.

<ul>
<li>Ubiquiti delivered its first quarterly revenue of more than $500 million as the Company generated free cash flow to further reduce its debt balance.   </li>
<li>Ubiquiti reported fiscal fourth quarter (June) results that were lower than we were forecasting as we assumed service provider segment would continue to trend higher sequentially. </li>
<li>Ubiquiti is now on a revenue trajectory of achieving over $500 million in quarterly revenue along with gross margin of over 40 percent. </li>
</ul>


Ubiquiti delivered its first quarterly revenue of more than $500 million as the Company generated free cash flow to further reduce its debt balance.   
Ubiquiti reported fiscal fourth quarter (June) results that were lower than we were forecasting as we assumed service provider segment would continue to trend higher sequentially. 
Ubiquiti is now on a revenue trajectory of achieving over $500 million in quarterly revenue along with gross margin of over 40 percent. 


Xperi Holding Corp creates, develops, and licenses audio, computational imaging, computer vision and semiconductor packaging and interconnect technologies. The Company offers its products and solutions to mobile, home, datacenter, and automotive industries.

<ul>
<li>XPER selling Perceive is of greater benefit than the proceeds XPER would immediately receive. </li>
<li>The sale of Perceive to AMZN gives clarity as to the value of the technology XPER has been incubating for many years. </li>
<li>We estimate XPER recognizes approximately $3.5 million to $4 million in quarterly operating losses from Perceive. The cost savings would be material to XPER’s non-GAAP net income.</li>
</ul>


XPER selling Perceive is of greater benefit than the proceeds XPER would immediately receive. 
The sale of Perceive to AMZN gives clarity as to the value of the technology XPER has been incubating for many years. 
We estimate XPER recognizes approximately $3.5 million to $4 million in quarterly operating losses from Perceive. The cost savings would be material to XPER’s non-GAAP net income.


<ul>
<li>TLN benefited from warmer weather in the second quarter with its power plants running without any issues. The increase in electricity demand resulted in TLN reporting adjusted EBITDA higher estimates. </li>
<li>TLN’s management suggesting there could be more data center deals in the future was the biggest takeaway from the earnings call. </li>
<li>Considering the added benefit of the auction results for 2025-26, we believe there is ample reason to expect TLN’s stock to trade above our price target of $145.</li>
</ul>


TLN benefited from warmer weather in the second quarter with its power plants running without any issues. The increase in electricity demand resulted in TLN reporting adjusted EBITDA higher estimates. 
TLN’s management suggesting there could be more data center deals in the future was the biggest takeaway from the earnings call. 
Considering the added benefit of the auction results for 2025-26, we believe there is ample reason to expect TLN’s stock to trade above our price target of $145.


Founded BWS Financial in 2000. Has been generating long/short investment ideas focused on catalyst driven value stocks since 2003.

Hamed Khorsand
Founder
• BWS Financial Inc

TLN: Powered for Free Cash Flow, PT to $185

TLN issued 2025 guidance that put our original numbers at the low end of the forecast giving us confidence the business could achieve over $1...

BWS Financial Inc

IMMR: Book Value Rises, PT Now $13.50

IMMR reported Q2 results with the decision to carry BNED at investment value instead of marking to market. This has distorted IMMR's true book...

BWS Financial Inc

XPER: Cash and Cost Savings

Perceive was operating at a quarterly loss of ~$3.5 million making it immediately accretive to XPER. The clarity in XPER's profitability should...

BWS Financial Inc

TLN: More EBITDA More Value

We are raising our 2024 adjusted EBITDA estimate while maintaining our 2025 outlook. Our 2025 estimate remains significantly higher than 2024...

BWS Financial Inc

TLN: Powered for Free Cash Flow, PT to $185

TLN issued 2025 guidance that put our original numbers at the low end of the forecast giving us confidence the business could achieve over $1...

BWS Financial Inc

IMMR: Book Value Rises, PT Now $13.50

IMMR reported Q2 results with the decision to carry BNED at investment value instead of marking to market. This has distorted IMMR's true book...

BWS Financial Inc

UI: Revenue Trending Higher, PT to $240

We were slightly aggressive with our estimates, but UI performed better than the rest of the Street's estimates and sets up a trend of delivering...

BWS Financial Inc

XPER: Cash and Cost Savings

Perceive was operating at a quarterly loss of ~$3.5 million making it immediately accretive to XPER. The clarity in XPER's profitability should...

BWS Financial Inc

TLN: More EBITDA More Value

We are raising our 2024 adjusted EBITDA estimate while maintaining our 2025 outlook. Our 2025 estimate remains significantly higher than 2024...

BWS Financial Inc