Independent Research, US Dominant Players, Investment Talk

Investment Talk

Independent Research, US Dominant Players

Investment Talk is for readers who wish to learn about companies that are potentially outside of their own circle of research, as well as those who are longing to become part of a community of like-minded investors and learn more about investment research. I would describe myself as a long-term investor who typically takes a 3Y to 5Y outlook, before reassessing once that period matures. I follow the adage that one should research, reach a conclusion, and then verify and continue to hold so long as the thesis remains intact. My own investing style is one that seeks to find dominant players within their respective market who have shown signs of monopoly or oligopolistic behaviour, unlikely to be disrupted, in tandem with discovering market disruptors who have a high likelihood of disrupting their respective market. Equally (and weighted accordingly) I seek to discover more nuanced, misunderstood, situations with a shorter time frame.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>A while ago I wrote a piece about share cannibals and where to find them. Since we introduced the ability to screen for share cannibals at Koyfin (the screener I use, if interested) I have been exploring aggressive share repurchasers more often.</li><li>Evident to me, is the disparity in attitudes towards share repurchases between US and European stocks.</li><li>When casting a wide geographical net in the screener and searching for the loftiest reduction in share count (as a %), the US companies proliferate the output.</li></ul>

A while ago I wrote a piece about share cannibals and where to find them. Since we introduced the ability to screen for share cannibals at Koyfin (the screener I use, if interested) I have been exploring aggressive share repurchasers more often.Evident to me, is the disparity in attitudes towards share repurchases between US and European stocks.When casting a wide geographical net in the screener and searching for the loftiest reduction in share count (as a %), the US companies proliferate the output.

Companies That are Fixated on Buying Back Stock

Equity Bottom-Up

Kura Sushi USA, Inc. operates as a restaurant. The Company prepares various types of seafood products such as sweet shrimp, octopus, squid, salmon, tuna, snow crab, conch, toro, and other related dishes. Kura Sushi USA serves customers worldwide.

<ul><li>It’s a playbook Kura Sushi has performed numerous times before to shore up the balance sheet. In 2021, the company issued 1.1 million shares of stock at $45 netting proceeds of ~$47 million of which $17 million was used to erase the line of credit extended to them during the pandemic from the parent company.</li><li><p>The rest was used for CapEx and operating costs. In 2023, the company issued a further 1.3 million shares at $54 per share, netting ~$65 million in proceeds for CapEx and operating costs.</p></li><li><p>Following the Q4 earnings in November 2024, an announcement to raise (at $85 per share) a further $64.6 million in proceeds surfaced; once again for CapEx and operating costs.</p></li></ul>

It’s a playbook Kura Sushi has performed numerous times before to shore up the balance sheet. In 2021, the company issued 1.1 million shares of stock at $45 netting proceeds of ~$47 million of which $17 million was used to erase the line of credit extended to them during the pandemic from the parent company.The rest was used for CapEx and operating costs. In 2023, the company issued a further 1.3 million shares at $54 per share, netting ~$65 million in proceeds for CapEx and operating costs.Following the Q4 earnings in November 2024, an announcement to raise (at $85 per share) a further $64.6 million in proceeds surfaced; once again for CapEx and operating costs.

New Wave Group AB develops, acquires, and markets trademarks and products for corporate profiling.  The Company works within two business areas: Profil wholesales sportswear and uniforms with business names and logos, as well as corporate image products and business gifts.  Detaljhandel sells brand name sports and casual wear, shoes, and household items.  New Wave sells in Europe.

<ul><li>After a warm-up week of swimming, rowing and archery, the Olympics now kicks into top gear with the athletics.</li><li>Among the hottest of track and field gold medal prospects is Armand ‘Mondo’ Duplantis of Sweden.</li><li>On Monday evening, the 24-year-old will contest the men’s pole vault final as the defending champion from Tokyo. </li></ul>

After a warm-up week of swimming, rowing and archery, the Olympics now kicks into top gear with the athletics.Among the hottest of track and field gold medal prospects is Armand ‘Mondo’ Duplantis of Sweden.On Monday evening, the 24-year-old will contest the men’s pole vault final as the defending champion from Tokyo. 

Burberry Group PLC is a global luxury brand with British heritage, core outerwear, and large leather goods base. The Company designs and sources apparel and accessories, selling through a diversified network of retail, digital, wholesale, and licensing channels worldwide.

<ul><li>It was hard to imagine a worse first quarter for Burberry.</li><li>At a time when investors were desperate for some positive news following a torrentially bad fiscal 2024, Burberry’s Q1 trading update emphasised a “luxury market that is proving more challenging than expected” with the weakness highlighted coming into FY25 having “deepened” .</li><li>Retail revenue for the quarter of £458 million came in 22% below the prior year.</li></ul>

It was hard to imagine a worse first quarter for Burberry.At a time when investors were desperate for some positive news following a torrentially bad fiscal 2024, Burberry’s Q1 trading update emphasised a “luxury market that is proving more challenging than expected” with the weakness highlighted coming into FY25 having “deepened” .Retail revenue for the quarter of £458 million came in 22% below the prior year.

BRBY: New CEO & Yet More Bad News for the Troubled Retailer

lululemon athletica Inc. designs and retails athletic clothing.  The Company produces fitness pants, shorts, tops and jackets for yoga, dance, running, and general fitness. lululemon serves customers throughout the world.

<ul><li>On March 21st, Lululemon reported FY23 results. All things considered, the results were good. Guidance, however, caused some upset. Lululemon shares are down ~29% this year; after being down just 6% before the report, and is currently the 8th worst-performing stock in the S&amp;P 500.</li><li>Lululemon’s implied 11.5% revenue growth for 2024 is a notable deceleration from years prior; having averaged an annual revenue growth rate of 24.4% over the last 5 years.</li><li>This year’s revenue guidance is closer to, but still behind, the 5 years before that; where Lululemon averaged 15.7% annual revenue growth.</li></ul>

On March 21st, Lululemon reported FY23 results. All things considered, the results were good. Guidance, however, caused some upset. Lululemon shares are down ~29% this year; after being down just 6% before the report, and is currently the 8th worst-performing stock in the S&amp;P 500.Lululemon’s implied 11.5% revenue growth for 2024 is a notable deceleration from years prior; having averaged an annual revenue growth rate of 24.4% over the last 5 years.This year’s revenue guidance is closer to, but still behind, the 5 years before that; where Lululemon averaged 15.7% annual revenue growth.

I am a 27-year-old who grew up in Germany & England before migrating back to my homeland of Scotland. I have worked since the age of 14, spent five years as a student of economics, and have served in various roles across the fintech and start-up landscape. I am currently a product manager and head of partnerships at Koyfin, and have been writing consistently since 2020. Investment Talk was my first newsletter, and I later started writing NTS. Investment Talk is where I write articles about the stock market, the companies within it, and human behaviour. I focus on writing about what I find interesting, in a way that will be both enjoyable and informative to the reader.