Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>A High Court ruling has affirmed Sabah’s constitutional entitlement of 40% of state-derived revenues. The ruling exerts fiscal and political pressure on the federal government.  </li>
<li>The ruling is part of a structural trend where East Malaysian states have used their leverage over the federal government to push for greater policy autonomy. </li>
<li>While a fiscal or political crisis is not imminent, the ruling may accelerate a shift in Malaysia towards a more federal, decentralised model of economic policymaking. </li>
</ul>


A High Court ruling has affirmed Sabah’s constitutional entitlement of 40% of state-derived revenues. The ruling exerts fiscal and political pressure on the federal government.  
The ruling is part of a structural trend where East Malaysian states have used their leverage over the federal government to push for greater policy autonomy. 
While a fiscal or political crisis is not imminent, the ruling may accelerate a shift in Malaysia towards a more federal, decentralised model of economic policymaking. 


Malaysia Politics: Court Ruling Sets Country on Path to Fiscal Decentralisation

<ul>
<li>The once-tiny  Bhumjaithai Party has leveraged off shifting political dynamics such as the Pheu Thai Party’s decline to emerge as the most powerful power broker in the country. </li>
<li>Hence, the coming election could break the 21-year old political deadlock by enabling a new political alignment that is better able to devise a fundamental political resolution. </li>
<li>Such a resolution will allow a less distracted political class to tackle Thailand’s deep challenges, revive a moribund economy, and so escape the middle-income trap.</li>
</ul>


The once-tiny  Bhumjaithai Party has leveraged off shifting political dynamics such as the Pheu Thai Party’s decline to emerge as the most powerful power broker in the country. 
Hence, the coming election could break the 21-year old political deadlock by enabling a new political alignment that is better able to devise a fundamental political resolution. 
Such a resolution will allow a less distracted political class to tackle Thailand’s deep challenges, revive a moribund economy, and so escape the middle-income trap.


Thailand Politics: Upcoming Polls Opens Window To Resolving Political Deadlock

<ul>
<li>Malaysia attempts to stick to its fiscal consolidation path, although this comes amid a backdrop of weaker global growth and stickier public spending obligations.   </li>
<li>The stagnation in development spending, lower revenue-to-GDP ratio, and higher debt service charge burden underline the incomplete nature of fiscal consolidation. </li>
<li>While the fiscal targets remain nominally intact, the quality of its consolidation risks slippage in the coming years. Challenges to medium-term sustainability remain unaddressed.</li>
</ul>


Malaysia attempts to stick to its fiscal consolidation path, although this comes amid a backdrop of weaker global growth and stickier public spending obligations.   
The stagnation in development spending, lower revenue-to-GDP ratio, and higher debt service charge burden underline the incomplete nature of fiscal consolidation. 
While the fiscal targets remain nominally intact, the quality of its consolidation risks slippage in the coming years. Challenges to medium-term sustainability remain unaddressed.


Malaysia Economics: 2026 Budget Shows Consolidation By Containment, Not Reform

<ul>
<li>Indonesia's GDP smoothness is largely a statistical artefact—particularly the use of imputed data for household consumption—rather than reflecting genuine macroeconomic stability. </li>
<li>While there is no prima facie case that income levels themselves are overestimated, there is a disconnect between long-run GDP growth and other indicators of demand. </li>
<li>The questions over data reliability have real-world consequences.  Economic policy and investment decisions may be based on weak macroeconomic assumptions.  </li>
</ul>


Indonesia's GDP smoothness is largely a statistical artefact—particularly the use of imputed data for household consumption—rather than reflecting genuine macroeconomic stability. 
While there is no prima facie case that income levels themselves are overestimated, there is a disconnect between long-run GDP growth and other indicators of demand. 
The questions over data reliability have real-world consequences.  Economic policy and investment decisions may be based on weak macroeconomic assumptions.  


Indonesia Economics: Can We Trust Indonesia's GDP Statistics?

<ul>
<li>While political and economic factors have left the sector relatively unscathed by Trump’s protectionism, new policy measures threaten trade in a sector where the U.S is a net exporter. </li>
<li>The proposed HIRE Act would add a 25% surcharge on outsourcing payments. While it faces legislative delays and dilutions, it nonetheless represents a latent threat to the sector. </li>
<li>India and the Philippines stand out as being most exposed due to their reliance on American IT and BPO demand. The H-1B visa changes will also hit remittances into India.</li>
</ul>


While political and economic factors have left the sector relatively unscathed by Trump’s protectionism, new policy measures threaten trade in a sector where the U.S is a net exporter. 
The proposed HIRE Act would add a 25% surcharge on outsourcing payments. While it faces legislative delays and dilutions, it nonetheless represents a latent threat to the sector. 
India and the Philippines stand out as being most exposed due to their reliance on American IT and BPO demand. The H-1B visa changes will also hit remittances into India.


Regional Economics: Is the U.S. Trade War Coming for Services?

Mr. Bhaskaran is a leading Asian economist based in Singapore with more than 30 years of experience in studying economic, political and security issues that shape the business environment in Asia. He co-ordinates the Asian business of Washington DC-based strategic advisory firm, Centennial Group, directing its Asian economic research practice which provides in-depth analysis of macro trends in Asia. He works extensively with investment institutions, government agencies and corporations. Mr. Bhaskaran regularly presents his views on the economic, political and business environment in Asia at business conferences and in-house briefings. He has conducted studies on a wide range of subjects including: consumer finance in Asia; Asian integration; regional and country-specific political and economic outlooks; the Impact of China on Asia; portfolio capital flows in emerging markets, amongst many others. He is as a member of the Regional Advisory Group for Asia and the Pacific of the International Monetary Fund. Mr. Bhaskaran is a regular columnist for The Edge (Singapore) and holds positions in think tanks including being Adjunct Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS); Vice President of the Economics Society of Singapore, and Council Member of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA). Mr. Bhaskaran serves on the boards of CIMB Investment Bank and Japfa Limited.