Global Mobility/Transport, Equity Long-Short

Mohshin Aziz

Equity Bottom-Up

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) / Equity Bottom-Up

Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited. operates as a battery products manufacturing company. The Company produces and sells power battery materials, energy storage batteries energy storage battery cells, systems, and other products. Contemporary Amperex Technology also provides batteries recycling services.

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH)

<ul>
<li>CATL announced its 1Q24 net profit of CNY9.2B (+19% YoY), which straight out blew past market expectations </li>
<li>The fear of ever-declining battery prices is overstated, as CATL has clearly shown it can take lower margins and boost ROEs via higher inventory turnover and high utilisation rates  </li>
<li>Our fair value of CNY253 <strong>(+27% UPSIDE)</strong> is derived by 23x 2024 PE ratio, which is 1SD below its historical mean. CATL is currently trading at exceptionally low valuations </li>
</ul>


CATL announced its 1Q24 net profit of CNY9.2B (+19% YoY), which straight out blew past market expectations 
The fear of ever-declining battery prices is overstated, as CATL has clearly shown it can take lower margins and boost ROEs via higher inventory turnover and high utilisation rates  
Our fair value of CNY253 (+27% UPSIDE) is derived by 23x 2024 PE ratio, which is 1SD below its historical mean. CATL is currently trading at exceptionally low valuations 


Contemporary Amperex Technology (300750 CH) 1Q24 Better than Expected

Travelsky Technology Ltd H / Equity Bottom-Up

Travelsky Technology Limited provides information technology solutions for China's air travel and tourism industries.  The Company provides electronic travel distribution systems, or ETD, in China, develops airport passenger processing and air cargo systems, owns and operates real-time network for China's civil aviation industry, and operates Internet-based travel platform.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/travelsky-technology-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19829:1" rel="noopener">Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK)</a> Jan-Feb operational data strong, volume processed by domestic +45% YoY and international by +52% YoY; much higher than the consensus 2024 forecast of 15%  </li>
<li>Traffic among the Big 3 Chinese airlines was up 46% YoY (-9% MoM) in March to +8% vs 2019. Domestic traffic rose 19% YoY (-11% MoM) to +24% vs 2019</li>
<li>TP of HKD9.92 <strong>(+8% UPSIDE)</strong> is based on 2024 PE 14.8x (1SD below mean). The upside is uncompelling, but we advocate a HOLD as traffic growth is stronger than consensus   </li>
</ul>



Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK) Jan-Feb operational data strong, volume processed by domestic +45% YoY and international by +52% YoY; much higher than the consensus 2024 forecast of 15%  
Traffic among the Big 3 Chinese airlines was up 46% YoY (-9% MoM) in March to +8% vs 2019. Domestic traffic rose 19% YoY (-11% MoM) to +24% vs 2019
TP of HKD9.92 (+8% UPSIDE) is based on 2024 PE 14.8x (1SD below mean). The upside is uncompelling, but we advocate a HOLD as traffic growth is stronger than consensus   


Travelsky (696 HK | HOLD | TP:HKD9.92): Domestic Travel Will Support Growth

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Iran led a direct attack on Israel, prompting fears of a wider war in the Middle East and jittering the global markets  </li>
<li>We think the futures market will start rough, but eventually chill towards the end of the day. Iran has stated its objectives are met and is not keen to continue </li>
<li>Western countries are taking the diplomatic route with Antony Blinken saying that the U.S. did “not seek escalation”. This is a positive sign  </li>
</ul>


Iran led a direct attack on Israel, prompting fears of a wider war in the Middle East and jittering the global markets  
We think the futures market will start rough, but eventually chill towards the end of the day. Iran has stated its objectives are met and is not keen to continue 
Western countries are taking the diplomatic route with Antony Blinken saying that the U.S. did “not seek escalation”. This is a positive sign  


Iran-Israel Conflict, Stay on the Sideline First and Wait for a BUYING Opportunity

<ul>
<li>Given Japan's meteoric share price surge in 2024, it is harder to find high yielding stocks</li>
<li>The high-yielding blue chip stocks were extremely popular with retail investors, and the value is now on the lesser known small-cap stocks  </li>
<li>Our recommendations are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-tobacco-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13498:1" rel="noopener">Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sankyo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12385:1" rel="noopener">Sankyo Co Ltd (6417 JP). </a>For financial stocks, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokai-tokyo-financial-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18815:1" rel="noopener">Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdin (8616 JP)</a> .  </li>
</ul>


Given Japan's meteoric share price surge in 2024, it is harder to find high yielding stocks
The high-yielding blue chip stocks were extremely popular with retail investors, and the value is now on the lesser known small-cap stocks  
Our recommendations are Japan Tobacco (2914 JP) and Sankyo Co Ltd (6417 JP). For financial stocks, Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdin (8616 JP) .  


Show Me The (Dividend) Money (Part II) - Play on Japanese High Dividend Yielding Stocks

<ul>
<li>Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) and Bank of Japan (BOJ) coordinated efforts are working: deflation is over,  equity values surging, and cash ratio as percentage of household assets is declining  </li>
<li>Japanese investors' participation in the equity run is modest, foreigners are buying more. While it seems unlikely at the moment, the pertinent question remains, "When will they stop dancing?"         </li>
<li>Valuations are on par with historical averages and at similar gaps against developed market peers. The easy money had been made, Japan should be moved to tactically NEUTRAL soon.      </li>
</ul>


Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) and Bank of Japan (BOJ) coordinated efforts are working: deflation is over,  equity values surging, and cash ratio as percentage of household assets is declining  
Japanese investors' participation in the equity run is modest, foreigners are buying more. While it seems unlikely at the moment, the pertinent question remains, "When will they stop dancing?"         
Valuations are on par with historical averages and at similar gaps against developed market peers. The easy money had been made, Japan should be moved to tactically NEUTRAL soon.      


Japan No Longer Cheap, at Fair Value Territory. Time to Be Selective!

Capital market veteran with 22 years experience with stints as an analyst (sell-side & buyside), investor relations and fund manager. 

My key expertise in the aviation sector. My definition of "aviation" includes airlines, travel tours, airports, airport retail & services, OEMs, online travel agents, aircraft lessors, air cargo/logistics, etc.   

I have an active watchlist consisting 190 companies across 41 countries. The aviation sector is highly cyclical and I am constantly evaluating signals to uncover attractive trade opportunities.