Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Since the global financial crisis (GFC), analysing global liquidity supply has become an essential part of asset allocation. Short-term optimism has dominated the allocation of liquidity since the GFC.</li>
<li>Global liquidity became less abundant and more volatile from 2022, raising the prospect of shorter economic expansions. Fiscal dominance challenges central banks due to governments' unwillingness reduce to budget profligacy.</li>
<li>Global liquidity expansion in 2026 could hinge critically on the central banks in the US, UK and China at least matching current expectations of policy easing.</li>
</ul>


Since the global financial crisis (GFC), analysing global liquidity supply has become an essential part of asset allocation. Short-term optimism has dominated the allocation of liquidity since the GFC.
Global liquidity became less abundant and more volatile from 2022, raising the prospect of shorter economic expansions. Fiscal dominance challenges central banks due to governments' unwillingness reduce to budget profligacy.
Global liquidity expansion in 2026 could hinge critically on the central banks in the US, UK and China at least matching current expectations of policy easing.


Global Liquidity Expansion in 2026: Increasingly Dependent on the US and China

<ul>
<li>The performance of the US economy and equities exceeded the predictions of many who feared  fallout from tariffs. Highly respectable economic momentum during 2025 H2 will spill over into 2026.</li>
<li>US fiscal policy will be reflationary during 2026 H1, due to political considerations, courtesy of large tax refunds as well as potential tariff-related dividends being paid to households.</li>
<li>Fed policy will be eased during 2026 by a magnitude that may exceed current market expectations. US equities will enjoy broad-based support from reflationary policies, producing less narrow market leadership.</li>
</ul>


The performance of the US economy and equities exceeded the predictions of many who feared  fallout from tariffs. Highly respectable economic momentum during 2025 H2 will spill over into 2026.
US fiscal policy will be reflationary during 2026 H1, due to political considerations, courtesy of large tax refunds as well as potential tariff-related dividends being paid to households.
Fed policy will be eased during 2026 by a magnitude that may exceed current market expectations. US equities will enjoy broad-based support from reflationary policies, producing less narrow market leadership.


US Reflation in 2026 Will Support Economy and Risky Assets

<ul>
<li>The arrival of the second Trump administration has triggered a wave of commentary justifying lower exposure to US financial markets. Dislike of US trade policy is the main driving force.</li>
<li>The case for greater exposure to Europe is undermined by significant economic stagnation and deindustrialisation in Germany, thereby raising questions about the future economic and financial stability in the region.</li>
<li>Gold is the big winner in 2025 due to portfolio diversification, driven by geopolitical tensions and US dollar weakness. The consensus global economic outlook for 2026 suggests  range-bound gold prices.</li>
</ul>


The arrival of the second Trump administration has triggered a wave of commentary justifying lower exposure to US financial markets. Dislike of US trade policy is the main driving force.
The case for greater exposure to Europe is undermined by significant economic stagnation and deindustrialisation in Germany, thereby raising questions about the future economic and financial stability in the region.
Gold is the big winner in 2025 due to portfolio diversification, driven by geopolitical tensions and US dollar weakness. The consensus global economic outlook for 2026 suggests  range-bound gold prices.


The Diversification Debate: German Stagnation Undermines the Case for Europe, but Gold Wins in 2025

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The Fed lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points and announced a liquidity management programme to add cash to the banking system during a period of seasonal stress.</li>
<li>New forward guidance suggests only two more rate reductions over the next two years, but Chairman Powell seemed more dovish about the outlook for policy in his press conference.</li>
<li>Fed policy settings have become less restrictive and have almost returned to neutrality, based on r*. Real-Time data from commodity and equity markets suggest monetary conditions have eased since April.</li>
</ul>


The Fed lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points and announced a liquidity management programme to add cash to the banking system during a period of seasonal stress.
New forward guidance suggests only two more rate reductions over the next two years, but Chairman Powell seemed more dovish about the outlook for policy in his press conference.
Fed policy settings have become less restrictive and have almost returned to neutrality, based on r*. Real-Time data from commodity and equity markets suggest monetary conditions have eased since April.


Fed Policy Taking Dovish Tilt in 2026 as Liquidity Management Programme Aims to Lower Repo Stress

<ul>
<li>Ending quantitative tightening will not eradicate pressure on bank reserves due to Treasury borrowing. Liquidity will be boosted in 2026 by depletion of the Treasury's General Account at the Fed.</li>
<li>The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) enacted retroactive tax breaks to 1 January 2025 without changes to withholding tax schedules, thereby ensuring large refunds in 2026 H1.</li>
<li>The economic impact of the OBBBA's tax breaks will be smaller compared to COVID-19 pandemic-related cheques because they favour households with higher propensities to save. Data-dependent Fed policy will continue.</li>
</ul>


Ending quantitative tightening will not eradicate pressure on bank reserves due to Treasury borrowing. Liquidity will be boosted in 2026 by depletion of the Treasury's General Account at the Fed.
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) enacted retroactive tax breaks to 1 January 2025 without changes to withholding tax schedules, thereby ensuring large refunds in 2026 H1.
The economic impact of the OBBBA's tax breaks will be smaller compared to COVID-19 pandemic-related cheques because they favour households with higher propensities to save. Data-dependent Fed policy will continue.


Tax Refunds to Support Consumers in 2026 H1, Raising Inflation and Fed Policy Concerns

Said DeSaque is a  professional economist with over 35 years of experience covering the global economy, with significant expertise in the US, China, Japan and emerging markets. He worked with US investment banks for over 25 years  covering institutional investors in Europe, Middle East, Far East and Australia. Covers financial markets on a multi asset basis. Said has been an independent economist covering the global economy and financial markets for over 10 years since founding DeSaque Macro Research in London.

Said Desaque
Global Economist
• DeSaque Macro Research

Global Liquidity Expansion in 2026: Increasingly Dependent on the US and China

Global liquidity has been less abundant since 2022 as central banks rein in excessive policy accommodation. The Fed and People's Bank of China are...

DeSaque Macro Research

US Reflation in 2026 Will Support Economy and Risky Assets

US fiscal and monetary policy settings will ease during 2026, supporting economic activity and risky assets. Corporate profit expectations will...

DeSaque Macro Research

The Diversification Debate: German Stagnation Undermines the Case for Europe, but Gold Wins in 2025

The second Trump administration and tariffs provoked the media to argue for diversifying portfolios away from the US to Europe. Secular stagnation...

DeSaque Macro Research

Fed Policy Taking Dovish Tilt in 2026 as Liquidity Management Programme Aims to Lower Repo Stress

The Fed lowered its policy rate to 3.5%-3.75% last week as expected and launched a liquidity management programme to relieve repo funding stress....

DeSaque Macro Research

Tax Refunds to Support Consumers in 2026 H1, Raising Inflation and Fed Policy Concerns

Depletion of the Treasury's General Account at the Fed and tax refunds in 2026 H1 reduce pressure on bank reserves and will support consumer...

DeSaque Macro Research