Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Equity Bottom-Up

HCL Technologies Limited provides software development and related engineering services.  The Group's technologies utilize a variety of technologies, including Internet and e-commerce, networking, internet telephony, embedded software, ASIC/VLSI design and testing, satellite and wireless communications, and component based object technologies, including COM, DCOM and COBRA.

<ul>
<li>Following <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hcl-technologies-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20025:1" rel="noopener">HCL Technologies (HCLT IN)</a>'s fiscal 4Q2024 earning report last month, we have witnessed an acceleration in near-term earnings estimates downgrades.</li>
<li>Based on near-term momentum indicators, it seems that we are only at the beginning stage of a prolonged period of underperformance.</li>
<li>HCL Technologies currently trades roughly one standard deviation above its rolling 5-year historic average PE ratio.</li>
</ul>


Following HCL Technologies (HCLT IN)'s fiscal 4Q2024 earning report last month, we have witnessed an acceleration in near-term earnings estimates downgrades.
Based on near-term momentum indicators, it seems that we are only at the beginning stage of a prolonged period of underperformance.
HCL Technologies currently trades roughly one standard deviation above its rolling 5-year historic average PE ratio.


HCL Technologies: Negative Technical Analysis Signals

Vipshop Holdings Ltd. retails branded products at discount over the Internet. The Company retails through flash sales, in which limited quantities of an item are sold at deep discount for a specified period of time.

<ul>
<li>The slowdown in Chinese retail sales of apparel seems to have been factored into <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vipshop-holdings-ltd-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1088:1" rel="noopener">Vipshop Holdings (VIPS US)</a> 1Q 2024 revenue growth expectations whilst bottom-line is supported by margin expansion.</li>
<li>With net cash at ~40% of its market cap, the share price should be supported by the ongoing share repurchase program and its inaugural annual dividend policy.</li>
<li>Its 6.6x NTM PE ratio (~4x ex-cash) seems extremely attractive for a highly cash-generative business set to (conservatively) grow earnings at high-single-digits whilst buying back shares and paying dividends.</li>
</ul>


The slowdown in Chinese retail sales of apparel seems to have been factored into Vipshop Holdings (VIPS US) 1Q 2024 revenue growth expectations whilst bottom-line is supported by margin expansion.
With net cash at ~40% of its market cap, the share price should be supported by the ongoing share repurchase program and its inaugural annual dividend policy.
Its 6.6x NTM PE ratio (~4x ex-cash) seems extremely attractive for a highly cash-generative business set to (conservatively) grow earnings at high-single-digits whilst buying back shares and paying dividends.


Vipshop: Net Cash at 40% of Market Cap, Now Paying Dividends and Buying Back Shares

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Global Emerging Markets Weekly summarizes the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.</li>
<li>
 Macro data points: Indonesian and Philippine GDP growth, and Chinese exports data.</li>
<li>
 Companies mentioned:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huawei-technologies-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8231:1" rel="noopener">Huawei Technology (40978Z CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naver-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16029:1" rel="noopener">Naver Corp (035420 KS)</a>
</li>
</ul>


The Global Emerging Markets Weekly summarizes the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.

 Macro data points: Indonesian and Philippine GDP growth, and Chinese exports data.

 Companies mentioned:Huawei Technology (40978Z CH), Naver Corp (035420 KS)



GEMWeekly (3 May 2024): Indonesia, China, Philippines Macro; Huawei, Naver

<ul>
<li>The Global Emerging Markets Weekly summarizes the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.</li>
<li>
 Macro data points: China PMI data, South Korean exports, and consumer inflation.</li>
<li>
 Companies mentioned:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc-a55ca720-5968-48f0-8194-ac94390d065c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32212:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (9888 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-hynix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16955:1" rel="noopener">SK Hynix (000660 KS)</a>
</li>
</ul>


The Global Emerging Markets Weekly summarizes the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.

 Macro data points: China PMI data, South Korean exports, and consumer inflation.

 Companies mentioned:Baidu (9888 HK), Tencent (700 HK), SK Hynix (000660 KS)



GEMWeekly (3 May 2024): China, South Korea Macro; Baidu, Tencent, SK Hynix

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>An overview (and output) of our machine learning-driven GEM screening model, which seeks to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top 100 stocks in the MSCI GEM Index.</li>
<li>The model is based on 1) a quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two AI Technology-based approaches; 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model.</li>
<li>Developed over roughly 4 years and implemented in its current state for over 3 years, the model has a solid real-world alpha-generating performance track record, discussed in detail below.</li>
</ul>


An overview (and output) of our machine learning-driven GEM screening model, which seeks to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top 100 stocks in the MSCI GEM Index.
The model is based on 1) a quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two AI Technology-based approaches; 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model.
Developed over roughly 4 years and implemented in its current state for over 3 years, the model has a solid real-world alpha-generating performance track record, discussed in detail below.


Global Equity Analyst with 15+ years of experience as a Buy Side analyst covering companies in the Emerging and Developed markets.
Fundamental and Quantitative analysis on companies in the Internet, Telecommunication, Media, Technology, IT Services, Healthcare, Pharmaceutical and other Industrial sectors.
Idea generation focussed on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.